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If I used Windows, and Vista came out without any backwards compatibility, then there's no way in hell I'd upgrade. Just that simple. I'm sure there's a very large percentage of PC users who would feel the same way, and I'm sure Microsoft knows this.
Even with Apple's transitions, which have all been fairly smooth, I held off for at least a year. And I intend to do the same with x86 Macs, even though they will be backwards-compatible, because the backwards compatibity will not be perfect.
The whole "applications will be updated!" argument never fails to bug me. As if older unsupported apps are no longer useful; as if small developers' products are not important; as if it's fine and dandy to have to start a software collection virtually from scratch (most commercial developers charge — and way too much, I might add — for these updates).
It's a tradeoff. And that's okay....but it is certainly a HUGE disadvantage for users in the short-to-medium term.
And don't get me started on games, which are obviously more important to the Windows crowd.
Even as a potential new Windows user (ha!), I wouldn't use Vista. The only reason to use Windows is to have access to its vast library of third-party software. Take that away, and it's nothing more than a crappier version of OS X. I think Microsoft knows that, too.
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