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Do you think Microsoft time in the sun is running out?
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Clearly, it is. While Apple, Google and others are all innovating like crazy, Microsoft has continued to try and push its same old business model. They still pin their hopes on a new version of the OS (Vista) and Office suite (Office 2008) that have been supporting their business model for twenty years. With the EU and US Dept of Justice forcing them to adopt open standards, they can no longer protect this side of their business.
Vista uptake is the slowest of any new Windows version in Microsoft's history. Firefox is now being installed by more people each day than Internet Explorer, and will overtake it in a couple of years.
Even in relatively new business units, such as XBox, they're not actually trying anything new; just more high-tech versions of the old business model - the XBox 360 might be a new system, but it costs the same to produce and sells at the same price, with the same license fees on games and accessories as its predecessor.
When all else fails, they copy what everyone else is already doing and tend to fail miserably because they come in with too little, too late. Can you say Zune anyone?
So yes, I'd say Microsoft has been withering away for some time. They're being overtaken by open source and by companies with new ideas and ways of delivering IT products to market.