[lbj]

Originally Posted by ElDiabloConCaca

… netbooks appeal to and sell the most to gear-heads and techies, which in the grand scheme of things, is an extremely small market segment.

All our beloved gear, Apple or otherwise, started out as “toys” for gear-heads and techies.

450k supplies the gear heads, 18 million represents penetration far beyond mere geeks.

Originally Posted by ElDiabloConCaca

Apple just doesn't build hardware to market to niche segments.

coughAppleTVcough

It’s estimated there are fewer than 500,000 ATVs ever sold, and yet for 2009, Jobs himself said it will continue as a “hobby”.

Originally Posted by ElDiabloConCaca

… I think less than 6 months is a tad overzealous in looking for an Apple-branded netbook (other than the current Air).

Not at all, they are already using all the hardware. All they need to do is source a smaller screen (which are everywhere), develop a decent small keyboard (ok, this is an Apple worthy challenge), and design a smaller-than-Air package. And they have been thinking and working on this for well more than 6 months now.

Originally Posted by ElDiabloConCaca

Well, since there have already been over 140 million computers sold and shipped just in the first half of 2009 alone, I would say that 18 million is most definitely a "niche" market.

6.5% is “niche”? Really?

Apple only very recently surpassed 6.5% of the computer market. Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes combined, let me repeat--combined, have less than 6.5% of the US car market. LG has less than 6.5% of the flat panel market.

Niche?

Originally Posted by ElDiabloConCaca

Not to mention that 18,000,000 is an estimate…I'd be willing to bet they either don't make it or barely crest it.

So it doesn't sound like 18 million is entirely unreasonable.

Originally Posted by ElDiabloConCaca

I can say that in 2007 I sold 4 of something and in 2008 I sold 80 of that same something. Is that explosive growth? By percentages, yes -- by numbers, no.

And this may be where we fundamentally disagree and will likely not find common ground. Both by percentage and actual number, the change is “explosive”. Or would you prefer “exponential”? Because netbooks are the only part of the computer market that is currently growing “exponentially”. Actually, it’s the only segment of the computer market that is growing at all.

Let me close by saying If anything I had, held, owned, sold, bartered, built, loaned, you-name-it, increased 40-fold in two years…then yes, I would call it explosive. I'm not trying to pick a fight, just feel strongly that Apple should, and will, enter this proven market in 2009.