[ElDiabloConCaca]

Originally Posted by lbj

All our beloved gear, Apple or otherwise, started out as “toys” for gear-heads and techies.

Like MP3 players... smartphones... wireless routers... yet Apple was not the company that "started out" with these -- they waited and entered a mature market. They were not the first, just the best. Apple brings technology to the masses -- they don't come out with the first of a certain kind of product -- they take an existing, mature market, and revolutionize it.

coughAppleTVcough

It’s estimated there are fewer than 500,000 ATVs ever sold, and yet for 2009, Jobs himself said it will continue as a “hobby”.

My point exactly... Apple has admitted that the AppleTV is more of an experiment than anything. Still, it was marketed to the masses -- an easy way to bring your digital lifestyle (which just about everyone has one of those now) to the living room. Still: marketed to a large population, not a niche market.

Everyone watches TV -- not everyone wants something "more than a phone, but less than a laptop."

Not at all, they are already using all the hardware. All they need to do is source a smaller screen (which are everywhere), develop a decent small keyboard (ok, this is an Apple worthy challenge), and design a smaller-than-Air package. And they have been thinking and working on this for well more than 6 months now.

I'm not saying that the technology doesn't exist -- I'm just saying that I don't think the timing is right. I have no doubt in my mind that in some top-secret lab deep inside 1 Infinite Loop that there is a lot of testing and super-secret hardware that has something to do with a "netbook." Apple plays with a lot of different stuff -- very little of it actually makes it to market.

6.5% is “niche”? Really?

Apple only very recently surpassed 6.5% of the computer market. Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes combined, let me repeat--combined, have less than 6.5% of the US car market. LG has less than 6.5% of the flat panel market.

Niche?

Whoa -- I understand that statistics can be used to "bend the truth" somewhat, but now you're mixing two totally different statistics -- market share vs. whom a company markets to -- and you can't do that.

Do you think that because Apple only holds 6.5% of the market that their products and ad campaigns are only intended for 6.5% of the population's eyes? Apple may hold only 6.5% of the market, but they market (read: advertise and develop for) to a very broad range of the population -- much, much, much more than 6.5%.

The same with VW -- the Jetta is the ubiquitous and all-purpose sedan. Regular, ol' 4-door sedans have such broad appeal -- everyone from those just getting their license to elderly people are attracted to the Jetta. They market the Jetta to more than 50% of the population of developed countries. Just because only 3.276% of the people bought VW over Ford doesn't mean that the company is only "marketing to 3.276% of the population." They hold a small market share, yet market toward a much larger percentage of the population. Two, completely different kinds of percentages and statistics that cannot be interchanged freely.

Being a "niche brand" is something totally different than a "niche market."

So it doesn't sound like 18 million is entirely unreasonable.

No, not unreasonable at all. Many more flat-panel TVs were sold than that -- should Apple make TVs? Just because something sells well doesn't mean Apple should automatically jump on board with an Apple-branded version of it.

And this may be where we fundamentally disagree and will likely not find common ground. Both by percentage and actual number, the change is “explosive”. Or would you prefer “exponential”? Because netbooks are the only part of the computer market that is currently growing “exponentially”. Actually, it’s the only segment of the computer market that is growing at all.

Let me close by saying If anything I had, held, owned, sold, bartered, built, loaned, you-name-it, increased 40-fold in two years…then yes, I would call it explosive. I'm not trying to pick a fight, just feel strongly that Apple should, and will, enter this proven market in 2009.

No, no, I'm not picking a fight either -- just friendly debate and banter. Nothing personal meant, nothing personal taken. It's all good -- we're still friends!

I will agree with the many people who think an Apple-branded, optionally touchscreen "netbook" (whatever that comes out meaning) would be cool. But "cool" doesn't mean it will sell well, nor does "cool" mean it will have wide-range appeal. iPods have wide-range appeal -- toddlers to grandmothers are fascinated by them, can afford them, and can use them with relative ease. Laptop computers have wide-range appeal: students, mothers, businesspeople, travelers, etc. iPhones have wide-range appeal: you don't see soccer moms toting about their Acer-branded netbooks, but you'd be hard-pressed to find one without an iPod or iPhone.

I just don't think "netbooks" have the market penetration abilities that Apple seeks. They revolutionize entire segments of the technology sector by creating products that simplify the technology to a point where one doesn't need a degree to understand how to use them. They also produce products that everyone (and when I say, "everyone," I mean the 80% rule) wants -- everyone wants music-to-go. Everyone wants a cell phone. Everyone wants a laptop... desktop. The line is blurred when it comes to netbooks, though -- too underpowered to be a full-fledged computer, too large to tote in a purse -- it's just a product that's stuck in limbo in my mind... doesn't know what it wants to be. Doesn't have the impact that Apple's looking for. Doesn't have everyday useful traits -- it's just a smaller laptop without as many features and power.

If (and when) Apple makes their "netbook," I would be willing to bet my left nut that it doesn't resemble current netbooks in the sense of being a computer that folds in half, one half containing a screen, and the other half containing a keyboard. That's too... plain and done. I'm sure Apple will all teach us a lesson in the ease of use and the usefulness of a portable, tiny computer -- but not in the current form factor.