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i think apple will always be around and probably always about anywhere from 2-8%.
i think the PC industry in general is about to move into it's modern age soon during the next economy spike.
by then (5 yrs from now), tech will be more standard and the new ideas and innovation from Apple will truly be adopted. i think lifestyle is a legitamite guess and peripherals will have a lot to do with it. i think the ipod will eventually change into (or evolve seperately from) something more Newtonish but of course with the Apple twist to it.
Think about it. Ipod is already a A+ mp3 player. The ipod is a D organizer presently. If they made the iPod an A organizer in the next few years, they can have a tremendous product in their hands.
Also, currently mMode phones are very close to being easy to use IMO. I have a AT&T Mot 720 and i find it ok, but the potential i see in it are exponential. If Apple can streamline the process with their own phone, and software...i see this as important as the Music Store. Owners of GSM phones with the mMode type features like games and software that download to the phone know what i'm talking about. It sucks now just like Pressplay and iListen did but if Apple got their hands on it and made it brilliant...watch out.
I do not see Apple making home Audio devices. I have seen people making their own iPod rigs connected to the home audio and they seem to have no interest in another big audio box clogging their equipment when a plug and their ipod save space, effort and is cheap (to turn your portable player into a home audio device as you already use the iPod for portable usage).
I see Apple finally moving into the next generation of processing with a new processor but how much damage has the G4/Mot done already and how big can IBM be in terms of development and the roadmap for the 970? How fast does the processor ramp and will the processor be *FASTER* than PCs at any given time? Remember Avis commercials where they work harder becauuse they are #2? Well Apple is #2 and their processor does not work harder. They need a clear cut advantages instead of BS like they currently have. Winning Wintel converts easily is imaging Apple store salesmen saying "This G5 performs exactly 15% faster than the latest Intel processor and here is a flyer with benchmarks as well as website links to independent benchmark scores where Apple beats every wintel score in every major category".
But Apple it will always be around and we will always enjoy owning and speculating about the future.
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-jt
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