The Mac is doooomed (tell me I'm crazy)

[nixgeek]

It's OK, RacerX. You could say it was me....I don't have a problem with it.

I did say that my theory was a crazy one and obviously you do know more about NeXT history than I do (from what I've seen anyways). I did mention, however, that it was too late for NeXT when they went that route. From what I've found out (before your information was given), they tried to do OPENSTEP but because they were in such trouble financially already, it was too-little, too-late. I only suspected that since Apple has more name recognition now (or in the near future) that might contemplate a move like that in the near future. Again, I'm most probably wrong an many counts, but it was just a suspicion...nothing more.

[Yesurbius]

Heads up - I read the first page and then decided I had to post

At MacWorld - on of the first things Steve said is that 2007 is going to bring a lot of great things to the Mac .. but they weren't talking about them today.

Apple's stock is falling. My guess is it will continue to fall until April, in which I think Steve will announce some good news for us. Why is it falling?

1) I noticed the push away from 'Mac' and more to their iTunes franchise. Incase anyone didn't 'clue in', Steve reiterated it with the company name change.

2) The lawsuit that was filed the moment Steve said, "... and we're calling it iPhone"

3) The fact that shortly after all this Apple partnership details came to light, Cingular started changing their name... Cingular reps answer "Welcome to Cingular, the new At&t" .. and word is - they'll be saying "Welcome to the new AT&T" shortly, followed by "Thanks for calling AT&T". Cingular is phasing out - going away. Buh-Bye. Customers don't like this one bit.

Take a look at my city here. A lot of graphic design departments .. this time last year, were running Macs exclusively. Today, they can't get the software they want on the Macs anymore, and are moving over to Windows - where they can. I'm assuming this has a lot to do with Adobe.

Yeah - so in short ... I think Apple has really dropped the ball in the last year, focusing on their iPod franchise instead of their computer franchise. I agree with the SGI comment .. never forget your primary line of business.

As for predictions - I can't say. History is plagued with great ideas and great products that were destroyed by a few bad decisions. In my mind however - this would be the mostly successful scenario:

1) New iPods only work with new versions of iTunes.. and Mac OS X gets the new version of iTunes a month ahead of Windows.

2) Leopard has full Virtualization of Windows, allowing you to run Windows Apps within Mac OS X at near-native speeds.

3) Apple does a lot of horizontal expansion as a company - gets more involved in the production of their own products - quality control - etc etc. We already see this happening in some degree with the Apple stores .. it needs to happen on the manufacturing side as well.

4) Apple broadens their hardware line considerably. Product families: Mac Mini, Mac Home, Mac Office, and Mac Pro. Each family will focus on different areas, but essentially you have 3 models in each family. Model 1 will be low-price centric, Model 2 will be mid-range, and Model 3 will be quite capable systems. Mac Home will essentially have features that are people want at home, where Mac Office will cut back on the Home features, and focus more on Office functionality. Mac Pros will be available in desktop or rackmount and will be the high end machines / servers.

5) Apple cracks down on Darwin - puts more money into their Unix team to do massive re-writes, code audits and changes to ensure that Darwin is fully-functional as a Unix, and is maintained very well for security patches. (I'm thinking the OpenBSD team's track record)

6) Apple gets REAL serious about Mac OS X Server. Does massive deployments in K-12 school environments and ensures that it does everything businesses, schools, etc needs it to do. Why K-12?? School uses Apple - kids want apple - parents get apple - parents advocate at work for apple. Not to mention that when those kids grow up - it'll only help Apple.

7) Apple releases Mac OS X to the world. For the best experience - run it on Apple hardware. Apple continues to innovate their hardware, and program the OS to use those innovations. Other PC manufacturers will always be a step behind Apple's brand of machines. More motivation to buy a Mac.

8) Lastly - STOP COMPETING WITH WINDOWS. Apple doesn't need to compete - just release their own products and people will move over on their own - quickly. Apple has a very loyal userbase - if they turn it into a Good vs Evil type scenario - they are alienating those group of people that want or need to run Windows. Stop doing it!

That's it. Steve referenced a quote at the last MacWorld - if you are really passionate about making software, then you have to make your own hardware too (or maybe it was other way around)... but the message is still there. Innovate and lead ... don't follow.

EDIT: Something to add in response to RacerX's comments. Your numbers are flawed. Apple would never just up and release Mac OS X to the world just so it could compete on the market without having some way to make themselves money. Windows sells for $300 per copy - you'd bet your butt that Mac OS X would sell for the same amount if not more. Lastly, Apple is at 6% market share - selling Macs. Mac OS X gets released to the world .. do you really thing people would buy PCs to run Mac OS X on it, if they've already owned a Mac? I don't think so. I'd say they'd keep the 6% market share of Mac users, and then gain additional Market share. They would essentially be penetrating the market faster, with a lower profit margin. Now - think also of the effects. Mac OS X on more machines = larger market share = more attention = larger developer audience specific to Mac OS X. That improves the entire Mac experience on a whole - and adds value to the entire franchise. That 6% they have now in Mac Hardware sales would only go up. You are also forgetting that Apple could require a DRM system in the computers OS X runs on - and the licensing costs could yield quite a bit of money as well.

[Rhisiart]

The Mac OS is more likely to die if Apple doesn’t branch out.

A much wider range of Apple products provide a buffer for limited market take-up of Mac OS.

Furthermore, healthy product sales of iTunes and iPhone (for example) bring in more cash for R & D.

P.S. I predict the next Windows incarnation will be unix-based.

[nixgeek]

Originally Posted by rhisiart

P.S. I predict the next Windows incarnation will be unix-based.

....And for hilarity's sake, I predict that UNIX will be more Windows-based....

...Hell, I could be right on this one, considering the state of desktop environments on UNIX/Linux nowadays. Mac OS X is in fact one of them (Unix being "windows" based...as in the WIMP term....just in case it went over someone's head....).

[Lt Major Burns]

but in all seriousness, MS will never base anything for the mass market on UNIX. microsoft licences, not the other way around.

[Captain Code]

Windows is only $300 for retail. They don't charge that much to Dell, it's only about $60.

[Rhisiart]

Originally Posted by Lt Major Burns

but in all seriousness, MS will never base anything for the mass market on UNIX. microsoft licences, not the other way around.

I'm just thinking outside the box... blue sky thinking... looking for the Goldilocks effect (not too hot, not cold etc...).

I think you guys are trying to boil the ocean.....

[Qion]

Originally Posted by rhisiart

I think you guys are trying to boil the ocean.....

I did that once.