The Mac is doooomed (tell me I'm crazy)

[Lt Major Burns]

that's a very big kedgeree.

[Ifrit]

Actually IMO the Windows support isn't necessary a bad thing.

Look at it from a customer's perspective:

What do you do, if you get a new computer which comes with preinstalled software/OS? Of course you turn it on and boot it up, just to see if it works. Its most unlikley that you plunge the install CDs in and reinstall away.

Secondly what do you have to do in order to install Windows on a Mac?
Usually you have to boot up OSX and select the bootcamp app and run it. So the customer gets at least a glimpse of OSX, because he has to interact with the interface just to reach said application.
Windows installs and the configuration afterwards are long, ugly and usually not something you would do instandly. Humans are curious. I expect that most people play at least a few minutes til they make changes to the system.

My last point is that people usually like backup or fallback plans. Having the option to install Windows will usually lessen the fear of the new machine. "If everything fails or if there is no substitute for application YX I could still install Windows". This will give people confidence in the new purchase.

Compared to me and other people on this board buying a new computer is a huge thing for certain persons. (I could easily spend my money on the latest imac and live the next 2 months from ramen without a problem, but not everybody has this freedom of choise ) They invest in a computer just like someone would invest into a some house or whatever and will use it beyond the products life-cycle.

[fryke]

Phew. Don't have the time to read it all. Just here to say: Apple is a _guest_ at the MacWorld show(s). It's MacWorld magazine's gig AFAIK.

[bubbajim]

Can't wait to you see what's coming out this year in regards to hardware. OSX will be zipping along on new desktops and laptops running the latest and greatest OS.

Apple employees do not get secret information about new products, but we did get very big nod from the big guy on how wonderful this year will be! Even after the iPhone, there will continue to be some very impressive new equipment coming from Infinite Loop**.

OSX is not going anywhere. Innovation will continue. Mac hardware is definitely not going anywhere. There just was not enough room to in the keynote for both new hardware AND the iPhone. When you want one start to shine more than the other, you don't put them both out at the same time. That's marketing suicide. New hardware will come and it will knock your socks off.

** Yes I work at Apple. No I have no secret information to give out.

[Mikuro]

It should be noted that had people not found a way to install Windows on Intel Macs, Apple would not have released Boot Camp. Boot Camp was strictly in response to the successful hacking of the hardware. Boot Camp was released within days of a successful solution to installing Windows on Macs.

Why do you say that? Apple certainly did not whip up Boot Camp in a few days. More likely, they'd been working on it from the start. If third-party hacks influenced them at all (which is just speculation), it was probably only in the timing of their beta release.

Actually, Apple would not only lose the advantages their hardware currently has by dropping Mac OS X... they would lose the profit margins as well.

How? (Keep in mind that I keep saying Apple could NOT pull this off in their current state, but rather in the future. So any reasons much take into account the possible future changes I proposed, or else debunk those changes convincingly.)

I think you underestimate the appeal of Apple hardware. Apple does differentiate themselves, even when you just consider hardware. Even now, when Apple can pretty much dictate their own market (since only they make Macs), they limit themselves to fancy/luxury machines. That's what they'd do if they sold Windows machines, and I think they'd sell well. Apple makes good, appealing hardware, and better yet, Apple has a great brand image. They have cachet. Half the reason so many people buy Macs now is just because Apple is sexy and cool. That would not change.

And that appeal has increased steadily over the past few years.

Apple's image as a company that makes "solutions" would not die, either, as they would still be selling iLife. As has been said many times by all sides of this discussion, the general public doesn't care so much about the OS as the specific apps. iLife would still be Apple's thing. In a sense, they would still be using their software to sell their hardware — just not OS X. They'd be more "tying things together" the instead "making the whole widget".

I don't think iPhone is relevant, since it is closed and pretty much separate from the desktop Mac OS. It's not like the future of the iPhone is tied to the Mac OS. It's just a phone.

I like your comments about Steve Jobs, and part of me agrees, but that's really just faith. I had that faith for a while, but...not anymore.

Originally Posted by Ifrit

Actually IMO the Windows support isn't necessary a bad thing.
<snip>

I agree. In fact, I mentioned that briefly in my first post, in the mantras the Mac faithful have been using. I do think that's a valid way to look at it, but it's not the only way. Certainly, the current situation is not PROOF that my predictions are right. What I'm looking for is proof that they're wrong...

There just was not enough room to in the keynote for both new hardware AND the iPhone. When you want one start to shine more than the other, you don't put them both out at the same time. That's marketing suicide. New hardware will come and it will knock your socks off.

I never expected new hardware at Macworld. I did expect at least some mention of Leopard. If not an extended preview (might steal iPhone's thunder, as you said), at least some word on the progress and expected release date. But that's not really the point. If Leopard had actually been released at Macworld, the theory would still stand. It would just be a lot easier for me to tell myself it's ridiculous.

[Timotheos]

I just dont understand your reasoning. Yeah, sure, if apple do get a huge percentage of the market which may or may not happen but why would they want to change their OS?

If you answer that then you have taken the first step to convincing me...

At this point, Mac's have the best operating system and the way things are going I cant see windows becomeing a greater OS, if anything it would have to be a next generation OS other than mac os or windows or linux that works in ways no one has thought of, and if someone was going to do that I would put my money on apple anyway.

Mac os works near perfect and I can only see the design team at apple improving on that, why would they throw it all away for something that isnt half decent?!?!

Another thing I dont understand is why you (and alot of Mac fans) have lost faith in jobs, if you lose faith in him you might aswell forget about apple 'cause hes the heart and soul...

A man make a great product and company... he gets kicked out of his job as CEO, the company goes down hill... he comes back, tries all the things apple had failed with in the 90's and pulls starts to pull them off... why would you lose faith in that? (apart from the fact that Jobs didnt give a release date for leopard, woop de do, i can tell you now, its in spring)

[Johnny Blaze]

I think they need to allow leopard to work on pc's. This would give them a huge amount of exposure, and could easily double their software market share within a year. I would say a solid 90% of people would never even consider using macintosh software just because you have to buy a whole new, rather expensive computer and theres a chance you might not like it. But if you give them the option of trying it out for $200?,MANY MANY people will try it out. And then they'll tell two people how great it is, and they will tell two people, and they will tell two people, and so on and so on.

The majority of Apples marketing campaign for the past few months is "we are better than microsoft. Their product is boring and our product is fun and easy to use". While a great campaign, many people simply will not spend over a $1000 on a macintosh computer when they never had the chance to try it out, regardless of even the most influential marketing campaign. Yes you can run windows on it, but the masses of people won't take this into consideration.

It is a great product and it deserves much more of the market share than it holds. The intel switch gives them the prime opportunity to skyrocket their success. They have had a far superior product for ten years, but why do they still only hold 5-6% of the market share? (a seriously low number) It is because people aren't willing to shell out the money to buy a new computer and try it out, THEY WEREN'T THEN AND THEY STILL AREN'T GOING TO NOW. But trust me, with the success of the ipod, the stylish macbooks you see going around campus, and their fantastic marketing campaign, people are very intrigued by Apple. Intrigued enough to spend a $1000 on a product they have never used before (and has a bad game collection)? NO. Intrigued enough to spend $200 on a product they can try out on a computer they already own? Most definitely.

After their software catches on with the pc crowd, which it certainly will, people will begin to have brand loyalty towards apple. I think initially apples hardware sales may take a hit (which might not even happen), but after everyone tries out leopard they will want to buy a mac computer. They won't mind shelling out a little more money for a stylish and reliable machine. Even so, a $200 software sale is money in the bank with very little materials cost.

And this is how Apple will take down Rockefeller Microsoft.

[Sunnz]

Originally Posted by Yesurbius

That's it. Steve referenced a quote at the last MacWorld - if you are really passionate about making software, then you have to make your own hardware too (or maybe it was other way around)... but the message is still there. Innovate and lead ... don't follow.

I think was "people who are serious about software should make their own hardware".

I think it pretty much applies to everything Apple is making - the Mac, iPod, iPhone... they had great ideas on how to make useful softwafe, like OSX, and design their own hardware, the Mac to run them.

People can actually run OSX on any 386 capable system now... but the integration just isn't as good as a Mac running OSX. Apple could release OSX for the generic PC, it would give exposure to the market, but would it be the best exposure?

I think not. Installation an OS isn't always straight forward, on a generic PC. If you have been following 'desktop linux' like Ubuntu, you would hear a consistent cry on why installation is so difficult, sometimes doesn't not work at all without any reasonable Linux knowledge. In most cases Ubuntu does install with ease though. But if Apple does the same thing, it is going to give bad experience to some people, so staying on the Mac would guarantee the best Mac experience - after all, they design the Mac to run OSX!!!

So if Apple are really serious about software, then why would they sell Macs without OSX? I mean, if the above quote were true, then whole point of of making Macs is to run OSX... making computers to run Windows isn't making Macs... anyway, OSX is going pretty strong, Leopard being sent to Open Group for UNIX certification and... if they really want to ditch OSX, they could always release it to the open source, like netscape, java, right?