The Mac is doooomed (tell me I'm crazy)

[Mikuro]

The Macworld keynote's announcements (and lack thereof) make me fear for the future of the Mac. At this point, I actually feel like Apple is phasing out the Mac OS.

PC journalists have been saying it since the 90s, and I've always just ignored them, simply assuming that they regularly enjoyed certain hallucinogenic substances. But at this point, I can't shake the feeling that the Mac OS is on its way out. The only difference is that unlike the pundits of the past, I don't think that the Mac OS will finally be killed by the market or by Microsoft or by the public's realization that Windows is better (ha!); I think it will be killed by Apple.

The signs have been coming for years, but I always felt like Apple was just "stretching", and that the heart and soul of the company would always be the Macintosh. Now I'm thinking "Apple's a business, and businesses don't even have hearts or souls." That much seems obvious.

A Macworld keynote with zero news about Macs seems like a dark sign to me. With the expected push into the phone and movie markets, I had hoped Apple would take this opportunity to reinforce the importance and relevance of the Mac. Instead, they ignored it completely. That makes it look like Apple doesn't really care, and the Mac is getting less and less important to them.

Let's look at the signs of the Mac's diminishing importance, and the excuses/explanations/mantras the Mac faithful (myself included) made when they first appeared:

1. Apple releases the iPod.
"There were no good mp3 players for Macs, so Apple made one. Apple's made peripherals before. It's a natural extension of their Mac business. *yawn*"

2. Apple adds Windows support to the iPod.
"Well, it only makes sense. As long as Mac support doesn't suffer, who cares? Besides, Windows users are still second-class citizens with their MusicMatch. It's a natural extension of their iPod business."

3. Apple makes iTunes for Windows.
"It'll give Windows users a little taste of the Mac. No harm there! It's just a natural extension of the iPod business. Apple doesn't want Windows users to feel like second-class citizens, they want them to love the iPod experience."

4. Apple launches the iTunes store. At this point, the iPod was undeniably a HUGE part of Apple and their future, and arguably a bigger part than the Mac OS.
"Music player, music delivery. It's just another natural extension. Apple is leading the way yet again!"

5. Apple announced the switch to Intel.
"It doesn't matter what chip is inside as long as it runs the Mac OS. — z0mg ibm is lamezorz and nevar got to 3GHz!!1! — Just because they use Intel chips doesn't mean they'll be 'PCs'."

6. Apple releases Intel Macs, and they are indeed just 'PCs'. As proof, Apple releases Boot Camp to allow Macs to run Windows normally (kind of an oxymoron, isn't it?).
"It just adds value to the hardware. Why NOT give people the option? Windows users might buy Macs now and stick with OS X after they use it."

7. Apple releases the AppleTV and iPhone at a Mac show (no, THE Mac show), with no Mac-related news at all. They even drop the word "Computer" from their corporate identity and the word "Mac" from the name of OS X (in regard to the iPhone's OS, at least).
"Just another natural extension! Natural extension, I say! That Mikuro guy is such an idiot. Shyeesh."

Now go from #1 straight to #7. They've turned from "The Mac People" to a phone and media delivery company. That doesn't seem so natural. In the 90s, could anyone have expected Apple's biggest news at Macworld to be a freakin' phone?! No way.

I could have gone further back with the signs, all the way back to the purchase of NeXT, the return of Jobs, and the birth of OS X. It ties in if you want to look at it that way, but it takes more stretching, so I left it at the iPod.


And now, let me propose some more likely "natural extensions" for Apple over the next few years:

8. Apple releases Safari for Windows.
"Anything that wrests control away from IE is a good thing for Mac users. Safari is much more attractive to your average Joe than Firefox."

9. Apple releases Cocoa for Windows. Now making cross-platform apps is just as simple as making a universal binary. This is how they got Safari working so easily.
"Great! Now developers can write world-class programs that will run great on the Mac OS AND Windows! One less reason for companies to make Windows-only software."

10. Apple offers a BTO option to have new Macs ship with both OS X and Windows pre-installed.
"Some people do need Windows. They shouldn't need to pay the exorbitant retail price. This makes Macs more competitive. It'll help Apple push into the corporate world."

11. Apple releases iLife for Windows.
"As long as it turns a profit, why not? Remember, Mac users get this stuff for FREE. It'll make for a great 'halo effect'. It's a good example of the cross-platform power of Cocoa."

12. Apple starts offering "Macs" preinstalled with only Windows (and perhaps iLife) in major channels. Hardware sales soar.
"This makes Apple truly competitive with the rest of the market. A lot of Windows users like Apple's hardware as much as Mac users, so why shouldn't Apple take their money?"

And unlucky #13:

13. Apple announces the discontinuation of the Mac OS. Most Mac developers are already making "obese" binaries that run on OS X and Windows anyway, so Mac users will be able to use most of their favorite Mac apps (including all of Apple's) on Windows. Other developers will have enough of a heads-up to adapt their Mac apps to run on Windows. The sales of Windows-only "Macs" are big enough to sustain Apple' hardware division, and the Mac OS is simply no longer needed to sell the hardware.
"Well....uhh...The spirit of the Mac will live on! It was only natural. Apple makes luxury hardware and easy-to-use software. They don't need their own OS to do that. Yeah. The Mac OS is so 2000. It's time for the Next Big Thing! Apple realized that; they really have vision! The Mac OS didn't really fit with the Apple brand, anyway. They're a media and hardware company first and foremost."

And there ya go. Apple has transitioned to Windows as smoothly as anyone could have imagined. They still call their luxury PCs "Macs".



Basically, the Mac OS has always sold Apple's hardware. Back in the mid-to-late 90s, nobody in their right mind would buy a Mac if they didn't want the Mac OS. Everything Apple did was tied to the Mac OS — without it, the company would have had nothing and would have died instantly. As long as Apple was on the PPC, this was still largely the case (maybe they COULD have survived on iPods, but their computer division was still reliant on the Mac OS and turned a great profit). Apple's transition to Intel goes a long way towards uncoupling their hardware business from the Mac OS, and as we all know the hardware is where they make their big profits. OS X has been vital in getting Apple to the position they're in today, making great hardware that everyone drools over. But soon that hardware will be able to stand on its own in the Windows world. Once that happens, and Apple no longer needs the Mac OS to sell hardware, they can easily dispose of it without even hurting the bottom line — in fact, it might be hard to justify supporting it, since a lot of money goes into OS X, and it's the hardware revenue that funds that. Once the hardware is self-sufficient, so to speak, the Mac OS will have fulfilled its ultimate purpose, business-wise.

Let me ask you this: if Apple were planning this move to Windows as I've outlined, is there anything you can point to in the past few years that they would have done differently? I don't think so. All their actions have been timed perfectly for such a transition. That's what scares me.

Tell me why I'm crazy. I'd love to be convinced.

[Captain Code]

Yeah right, not going to happen. Macworld got its name when Apple just made Macs. Now they make other things so you can't expect them to just focus on the Mac every single one. They have other venues for that.

[nixgeek]

One has to look to SGI to see what happens when a company abandons their primary platform and eventually goes the Windows route exclusively. I don't think that Apple would be stupid enough to do that (or at least I would hope not). I do think the possibility of Mac OS X for regular PCs and Apple's branded Macs is slowly becoming a reality (at least to me). Here's what I think might happen. Take it with a grain of salt as it's only my opinion on the topic, especially when talking about Apple's name change (I pulled this from my blog entry on my website):

Something tells me that the loss of the "Computer" moniker will mean that Mac OS X will finally be available legally for PCs from other computer manufacturers. This version of OS X will initially be available as a separate purchase but the hope is to eventually have it preinstalled on non-Apple computers. I don't think that Apple will stop making Macs, however, as they still have a charm all their own and are fully insured to work with Mac OS X. However, PC manufacturers will have to adhere to Apple's "hardware compatibility list" in order to at least run Mac OS X on their systems (this is no different from what Microsoft already does with Windows). I also believe that Apple's hardware sales will not be cannibalized because they will have something that the other PC manufacturers won't have, and that's the ultimate integration and transparency between Mac OS X, Apple Macs, and all of Apple's other devices. You might want to try it with your non-Apple computers running Mac OS X (if this ever happens), but it won't ever be as elegant as it would with an Apple-branded Macintosh.

You're probably thinking to yourself "wouldn't that make every other computer a Mac?" Yes and no. Yes, it would become a Mac, per se. However, the "Mac" or "Macintosh" name will become a model name, like we've seen with names like "iMac, "Mac Pro", "Macbook", etc. It will be a trademarked name (if it's not already) and other PC manufacturers won't be able to use the name. This isn't that much different than when the Mac OS was licensed during the 90s (Motorola called their Mac clones "StarMax" for example). Remember that Steve Jobs' other computer company, NeXT, started out making their own computers and eventually dropped the hardware and made the NeXTSTEP operating system available for regular Pentium PCs as OPENSTEP. Unfortunately for that company, it was too late. Even the Mac OS licensing scheme during the 90s was unsuccessful, but remember that this was done during Apple's darkest years and they didn't have the market's mindshare...this is why Steve Jobs "killed the clones" when he returned to Apple...he needed to build the Apple brand before attempting something like this. However, with Apple riding high on the Intel switch, the iPod, and Mac OS X, something like this would be a boon for increasing market share by getting those people who can't afford even the cheapest Mac to actually try out OS X on their PCs (software is cheaper than hardware). They could later choose to stick with their current PCs running OS X or switch to a better-integrated solution from Apple that would work seamlessly with the iPhone, the AppleTV, the iPods, and everything else Apple makes.

Again, it's out there and I'm probably wrong (maybe even definitely). But since we're talking about doomsday predictions, I thought I would include my thoughts.

Flame on!

[Mikuro]

Actually, that makes a lot of sense, Nixgeek, and it also fits in well with my reasoning. Either way (killing OS X or opening it up), Apple needs to detach their hardware from their software, so that they don't need OS X to sell their machines. To open up OS X, I think they will still need to start shipping "Macs" with Windows, otherwise they would not be able to compensate for the loss of hardware sales from people using OS X on other PCs (which is the main argument against 'cloning' you hear these days).

Captain Code: I would say that Apple has "other venues" for non-Mac-related news. Macworld didn't used to be about Apple so much as the Mac. Apple is already converting Mac fandom into "Apple" fandom very well. For instance, it's hard to find any site these days dedicated to Mac news; they all feature iPod news at the very least. That's exactly what makes my doomsday scenario possible — the Mac is slowly becoming unnecessary to Apple's success, even among die-hard Mac fans!

[HeliAnimal]

I hope Apple gets their hands in as many electronic products as possible. I'm tired of companies making ugly, non intuitive products. Everything I spend money on I do it right. I hope Apple makes HDTVs!

Look at a MacBook pro next to a Dell or HP laptop. 50% of the reason I purchased a Mac was because it makes anything else look goofy, cheap and horribly designed. The other 40% at least is because it was my 1st Mac and I had the "windows" safety net. But you know what? It's only been 6 months and I deleted windows cause it was hogging hard drive space. I despise using windows on any computer now, I will never go back from OS X or whatever else OS Apple designs. I'm a "Mac Geek" now. And following me are probably 3-4 friends at least. All because of the "intel" switch.

The iPhone is coming and I'm ecstatic. I KNOW it will be designed to the same high user expectations as all Apple's other products. I don't even need to use one. I will pre-order one as soon as possible.

Steve Jobs is a very very smart guy. He knew what he was doing more so than people probably give him credit for. The MAC is going NOWHERE! Don't be paranoid because Apple is spreading into other products.

[Johnny Blaze]

I just look at the comparative advantage mac OS has over Windows, and despite this fact Windows still holds a very large portion of the market share. I would bet Microsoft has really emulated the mac style with Vista, focusing on a more fun and people friendly pc. Considering the mac os only holds 5-6%?? of the market share, how will they be able to keep this huge comparative advantage if Rockefeller microsoft is focusing on being more like them.
The truth hurts.

[Ifrit]

8. Apple releases Safari for Windows.
"Anything that wrests control away from IE is a good thing for Mac users. Safari is much more attractive to your average Joe than Firefox."

No reason to release it for the PC. Safari is based on Konqueror rendering engine. Konqueror is available for "regular PCs" (although its current PC incarnation is part of Linux KDE Desktop manager) Remember in the past Apple included Internet Explorer as main browser in OS9 and early versions of OSX 10.0 - 10.2. Lots of people screamed "sellout" too, back then.

Believe me, Firefox (brand if you want to call it that) is very well known to most of the average Joe nowadays. There were lots of articles puplished - even in magazines which usually don't deal with IT tech.

9. Apple releases Cocoa for Windows. Now making cross-platform apps is just as simple as making a universal binary. This is how they got Safari working so easily.
"Great! Now developers can write world-class programs that will run great on the Mac OS AND Windows! One less reason for companies to make Windows-only software."

The cocoa framwork is more complex than a few dll files.
The whole system and design strategy which is used to link the GUI and the background code together is really different from that which Windows offers.

The main draw of buying a Mac or similar device is the operating system. OSX is the face of the mac. Would you buy the iPhone with *gasp* Windows Mobile on it? My planned purchase wouldn't be an imac with Windows and I probably won't use the bootcamp function at all.

I like that there is a option to use Windows, because unfortunally we live in a Windows centric world. Actually my first plan was to purchase a Mac pro + a second screen just to have everything in one machine, but I realised that I wouldn't use the power the mac pro offered - at all. And a 20'' or 24'' imac does the same, provides a nice screen and has an operating system which is far more elegant compared to the product Microsoft offeres. I still have a Windows PC which runs all current games.

10. Apple offers a BTO option to have new Macs ship with both OS X and Windows pre-installed.
"Some people do need Windows. They shouldn't need to pay the exorbitant retail price. This makes Macs more competitive. It'll help Apple push into the corporate world."

Whoa, I don't believe Apple would pull a "Palm" there. Steve would be really embarrassed too because for hundrets of Keynotes he teached us that OSX is faaaar superior. Now imagine him standing on the stage starring into space and mumbling into his microphone: "Hm, maybe OSX wasn't to great after all." Despite this, it would be to much trouble and to much cost to support an additional operating system out of the box IMO. (a operating system Apple doesn't have any control over)

Concerning your iTunes statement. iTunes is a frontend for quicktime - a pretty one, but still a frontend nonetheless. Its currently the only Windows program besides Quicktime because Apple wants to push its own media format into other platforms and markets. (the iPod worked well, now they try with a own phone)

Imagine the iLife suite without the backings and features of OSX. No or lesser support for scripts, inferior drag and drop support combined with the quirks and issues of the Windows OS - just to name a few examples. It would not make sense at all. Vista - to some extent already has reworked media management applications. iLive without OSX doesn't seem to be very attractive at all on another OS.

Why would Apple consider getting rid of MacOSX? In your post you wrote they are shifting away from OSX. Even if they do this doesn't necessary mean they'll go the Windows route.

Maybe its true that IBM and other PowerPC manufacturers didn't get their things together to make a decent offering. There are not many more platforms left to jump over than x86 and the "64bit equivalent".

[HeliAnimal]

I see all the cross migration a good thing for Mac.. not windows. Can you imagine how many people would dump windows and PC if through Wine or Crossover in the future you could run any windows game inside OS X? The ONLY reason I still need windows is to play RealFlight G3. If Parallels offers GL support they will be getting $79 of my money. (with a bootleg windows =)

I see Apple's share of the computer market jumping greatly over the next year. I have a BOLD prediction that if things keep moving forward and developers create complete game and software mesh inside OSX.. Apple's market will go from 7-10% to 50% over the next 3+ years. Very bold prediction I know. I'm talking MAC computers running OSX.. not some shameful Mac running windows or PC running OSX.

It seems all the NEW Mac guys are the excited pumped ones about Apple's future. All you tried and true Mac historians all seem pretty upset over the past year.