Future Talk -- How long will it take?

[Rhisiart]

Originally Posted by ElDiabloConCaca

.....VHS still isn't completely dead.

Mine is.

[MisterMe]

Originally Posted by Mikuro

...

As for the limited writes, I think this is basically a non-issue now. The number of writes has increased a lot over the years (it's in the millions now), ...

For fun and valuable prizes:

How many writes are performed by the virtual memory system each day?

[Mikuro]

Originally Posted by MisterMe

For fun and valuable prizes:

How many writes are performed by the virtual memory system each day?

My system with 1GB of RAM has written an average of 87,040 writes of 4KB each (340MB) each day since my last startup 9 days ago. That's equivalent to 4.25 seconds of the worst-case scenario discussed in that article.

[ElDiabloConCaca]

Do "they" really know how many sustained reads/writes a flash-based drive can handle? Hell, they still don't know what the expected shelf-life of a DVD-R is... 10 years? 50 years? 100 years?

I've heard suggestions that critical, long-term data be stored on (rotating platter, magnetic) hard drives and placed in a cool, dry place instead of storing that data on a recordable DVD because of the uncertainty and quality variance of DVD-/+R media.

Kind of like cars -- I had a Honda that was supposed to last 20 years or more die after 5 years. I had a VW Golf last 10 years and 250,000 miles. The Honda (which has a reputation of being reliable and long-term) had many problems (probably some that existed from the factory but were undetectable until the warranty ran out) and died a premature death. The Golf was a tank and no matter how hard I tried, I couldn't kill it. I believe I could have put another quarter-million miles on that engine before it gave up the ghost.

The point is that they can make estimates about longevity, but these complex machines (hard drives and cars) are unpredictable. You're only certain of the shelf life when the unit finally dies and you're left with a finite, exact lifespan -- but by then, the data's gone. "After the fact" doesn't cut it for some people.