Iran: Thoughts?

[ksv]

Originally Posted by Perseus

Cut the superficiality.

I think the only way to end the superficiality of this discussion is to contribute to it in a more thorough way
You seem to have opinions on the subject; share them!

[adambyte]

Allow me to contribute to the superficiallity of this thread:

Bad: Bush administration, Iranian government, people who kill anybody, Hitler, stepping in dog doo.

Good: Barbara boxer, grilled cheese sandwiches.

[spb]

I typically don't have time to devote to these discussions, but I must admit that I'm a little disappointed with the present state of the situation.

(1) Although Iran has potential for democratic reform, the moderate (reform) majority totally blew the last election by fragmenting itself across parties.

(2) The present government in Iran is seeking nuclear weapons and knows that its time is limited because (hopefully) the next round of elections will see a the reformers taking control.

(3) The US is preoccupied with Iraq, Afghanistan, and others. (By the way it is not impossible that the US was given bad information about Iraq from Iranian agents -- if so it was an excellent plan.)

(4) The EU is not handling the negotiations well. Europe's refusal to build a continental army leaves them dependent on the US military for enforcement of UN sanctions.

(5) The possibility of a useful security council resolution seems slim -- Russia has a vested interest in making this situation drag out.

I have no idea what is going to come from all of this, but it doesn't look good. Once Pakistan tested it's nuclear weapons it was apparent that the clock was ticking on the spread of these throughout the middle east. The combined policies of the US and EU has done nothing to democratize this region. Both have vested time and money into supporting dictatorship and monarchies rather than honest democratic movements. The first attempt to destabilize these was the war in Afghanistan, but this was so late in the game -- of course this is easy to say now since we don't worry about the Stalinists as we once did.

For as much as many HATE the Bush government, we've come to a point that the only hope is that the new Iraq and Afghanistan grow in strength and security and that there is a domino effect.

[fryke]

Originally Posted by spb

For as much as many HATE the Bush government, we've come to a point that the only hope is that the new Iraq and Afghanistan grow in strength and security and that there is a domino effect.

Well... The first error is the thinking that there's *one* way of democracy. The second (and worse) is the wish to push countries that are simply not ready for it into this *one* form of democracy. You make it sound as if a two-party system (or even a one party system, ooh, fun...) is the one and only way to govern a country, but for example Germany and Switzerland have very nice multi-party systems. And even those countries' form of government is highly different from each other. It depends on scale and diversity of the people which have to be governed.

[g/re/p]

Originally Posted by adambyte

Good: Barbara boxer

Barbara Boxer is good? WTF?
BB is almost as bad as hillary clinton!

[ScottW]

Well, while there is much on the surface (or shall I say below the surface) like oil which, is the life and blood of the industrialized world... and aside from arguments over land (like in Israel) and the bad opinion of the USA from other sections of the world (which, everyone is entitled to their opinion) underneath it all... it is a spiritual war. Good vs Evil.

Im not talking good countries vs evil countries... but a spiritual war. The part we don't see and many refuse to recognize. Look at Iran's current President, his motivation is strictly spiritual. Afterall, he believes the Mahdi (sp??) is coming in the next 2 years. He wants to be the example country for all of Islam.

Why do they hate Israel and the USA? Well, one they associate with Zionism which, is rightfully so. The other they associate with Christianity and while as an American, I am seeing less and less "Christianity" in this country but we are also a ally of Israel, so association makes us one of "them".

Islam countries will expect nothing other than Islam world-wide rule. Any attempt at peace by a non Islam country or group of countries will never succeed.

While I like President Bush, I dislike many of his decisions. He claims to be a Christian, yet he insists that Israel give up it's land. He seems to be in his own little world sometimes... oblivious to scripture yet seems to recognize good character.

My guess is that things will come to a head prior to the end of March unless Iran backs down or in some way defuses Israel and USA tentions. The EU is anybody's guess. No matter what, 2006 on the topic of world stability is going to be a big earthquake.

[markceltic]

Originally Posted by markceltic

Strange isn't it this region of the world called the "cradle of civilization".

I've got a little more time to expand on this now so bear with me. I can't remember where I read it now but I recall how the author was essentially saying if things had gone in favour of the Middle East it would've been a world power long ago. And not by just the fact of the oil underneath it's feet either. I don't claim to be any expert in the history of the region but I do understand that technologically speaking ancient Persia & the Arabian Peninsula were well ahead of the then chaotic European conteninent. ` So when & where did it go wrong? Why didn't the idea of democracy spring forth from here instead of being fostered by the Greeks leading to the Brits with the Magna Carta eventually to the Constitution by the Yanks? I'm sure someone here with a more expensive education will enlighten "us".

[simbalala]

Originally Posted by ScottW

Im not talking good countries vs evil countries... but a spiritual war. The part we don't see and many refuse to recognize. Look at Iran's current President, his motivation is strictly spiritual. Afterall, he believes the Mahdi (sp??) is coming in the next 2 years. He wants to be the example country for all of Islam.

Who does this describe? Two guesses...

They are vehemently against abortion, they resist progressive woman's rights. They view homosexuality as a crime against nature and God, some advocate the death penalty as an option for it.

Separation of Church and State is despised by these folks; they insist the nation is founded on the principles of their religion, and they work hard to bring that de facto theocracy about. They deplore strong language, gay characters, and sexual content on TV and in the media. And they ignore the Geneva Convention when it suits their ideological purposes, including provisions against torture or due process.

They're anti-stem cell research, pro-creationism, and generally distrustful of science. These folks are easily whipped into a state of frenzy with ideological manipulation to the point where they will commit violence, or at least tacitly endorse that violence is acceptable, if it advances their Divine agenda. They then take great pains to justify that violence, including unprovoked attack of civilian areas, under certain conditions, with convoluted theological gymnastics. They are almost to the man pro-death penalty ...

While I like President Bush, I dislike many of his decisions. He claims to be a Christian, yet he insists that Israel give up it's land. He seems to be in his own little world sometimes... oblivious to scripture yet seems to recognize good character.

He knows his target market well enough, people who are afraid. Fear based politics.