Oil crisis

[Rhisiart]

I am on shady ground here as I can't robustly validate any of the facts that I am putting forward, but what I have learnt (which quite rightly should be challenged), there are enough oil reserves - even in existing fields - to support oil consumption for at least 200 years.

The price of oil is determined not by shortage, but by:

1. Market speculation (2 or 3 dollar flucations on a global scale can translate into millions of dollars profit).

2. Greedy oil countries controlling production.

3. A failure by the US Congress to allow off-shore oil production off the coast of the USA.

4. An understandable need to switch to non-carbon energy resourses.

5. My own totally unccceptable carbon footprint (probably equal to China).

That's enough ed....

[bbloke]

Where did you get the figure of 200 years? It sounds rather unlikely to me.

If you have the time and the inclination, watch "A Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash."

[rubaiyat]

Seeing as that is obviously true, I'll have to go get an even larger air conditioned 4WD, particularly now that with my weight problem it is really uncomfortable for me to walk from the sofa to the fridge.

[Viro]

Originally Posted by bbloke

Where did you get the figure of 200 years? It sounds rather unlikely to me.

I remember the doom mongering in the late 80s claiming that fuel will run out by 2000.

[bbloke]

Originally Posted by Viro

I remember the doom mongering in the late 80s claiming that fuel will run out by 2000.

I suppose my experiences are a bit different, as I remember hearing predictions in the 1980s/1990s about how many decades of oil we might have left.

[Rhisiart]

Here's a quote from William Fisher:

New field discoveries are only about 25 percent of the source of most of the reserve additions of oil. About 70 percent of it comes from oil through increased recovery out of existing fields. Around the world, up to this existing point, we have already discovered about 7 trillion barrels of oil in the ground.

There is also an unknown quantity of untapped oil off the coast of the USA that could be as plentiful in supply as Siberia, which has barely been explored yet. However, Congress will not allow off-shore mining for oil.

David Cole, chairman of the non-profit Center for Automotive Research states:

We have failed to develop our resources due to the inability of Congress to permit drilling in high-probability petroleum regions .... the United States has had an absurd energy policy. We're basically sending billions of dollars to people in the world we're not very comfortable with, because of our own inability to develop our own resources.

I strongly believe that we should be moving away from oil dependency to other forms of energy production. However, we may well have enough oil left to allow adequate time for a relatively painless transition from oil dependence to other forms of energy production.

The current oil price hikes may well be due to a combination of greed and incompetence, rather than actual oil shortage.

[Qion]

Originally Posted by Rhisiart

The current oil price hikes may well be due to a combination of greed and incompetence, rather than actual oil shortage.

If that's the truth, America's government's inadequacies are doing a damn good job at throttling positive market growth and making our lives ever so much more stressful. We have nothing like Britain's diesel obsession, and yet our fuel prices rise ever the same... seems likely it's not a shortage, then...

Why is this even a question? Why don't all of us know exactly how many years of oil we have left? That is what I consider to be incompetent, that by large our population doesn't know the facts. Blame it on us, or blame it on the suits, it's still pathetic.

[bbloke]

In light of recent oil prices, the BBC has a page about reasons why the price of oil is so high.

It can be a tricky thing, estimating how much oil is left. When we're dealing with unknown reserves and unknown technology of the future, ultimately we don't know what we don't know... as it were!

There is also another issue. It is not only about whether or not we have a source of oil, it is also about the quality of the oil. Crude oils differ substantially and different fields present the industry with different problems.