Will the war in Iraq accelerate a worldwide military buildup?

[Ugg]

In the April 30th US edition of Die Zeit, a German Newspaper, Angela Markel, the opposition party leader (CDU) had this to say about Europe and the USA:

That Europe is so economically weak is self-inflicted and we can't blame it on the Americans. But I have heard some interesting theories: "The Americans of course have a strategic interest to divide us Europeans again." It may well be that the Americans are interested in doing so. But we are of course self-confident Europeans. We shouldn't permit it! The power of the Americans has advantages and disadvantages. And the answer of the Europeans can only be that we must become stronger, economically and militarally.

The translation is mine.

Hmm, it looks as though Merkel is interested in seeing Europe become some kind of a world military power. I realize that the idea of Europe coming up with a single foreign policy is a ways off but... The CDU has a good chance of replacing Schroeder in the next election. It could be all bluff to assuage the Germans' wounded pride but it could signify a long-term change in policy as well as the demise of NATO.

[Cat]

I would like to see the EU to become more independent of the US. If this means organizing a common army besides a common foreign policy, I welcome that development. The EU has been lagging behind and dragging its feet at military and peacekeeping operations. While oppposing war and military buildup of any kind, I welcome the greater autonomy this would bring for Europe.
Most of all, I hope this will not bring to a military increase, but would start with a common organization--coordination.

Ultimately this could bring to the demise of the NATO, but only if the EU is indeed becoming a sort of federation. Which will take decennia from now to achieve, if ever.

[toast]

On a theoretical point, Europe has achieved an important, kantian objective: pacific relations between democracies. It sadly shows Europe is a unique case in the world

Being a regional organization, Europe is designed to isolate itself from outside influence.
- For example, many commercial links have been broken with the outside world, such as agricultural bonds with African countries since the European Common Agricultural Policy was voted.
- Many political links have also been broken. For instance, Europe has its own section in the NATO decisionary processus (called EDU, European Defence Union).
-In parallel, Europe has harmonized from the inside. 70% of French laws passed last year are European projects. Some differences still remain, the Iaq war showed it, but governance (an agreement on a tolerable foregin policy) is on its way, even if that's an extremely complex and delicate thing to do.

In brief, I think the emancipation of Europe from the rest of the world is a natural movement. I don't think war in Iraq will trigger a weapon race. Why should the world rearm ? After all, the US has shown no army can defeat them. On the other hand, non-conventional armies (terrorism, private groups) may grow stronger as a following to the war in Iraq, and this is a worrying threat.