I want a bigger iPod Touch

[ElDiabloConCaca]

Eh, I'm going to have to bet against you. The netbook market is unproven (and could hardly be described as "exploding") -- netbooks appeal to and sell the most to gear-heads and techies, which in the grand scheme of things, is an extremely small market segment. Apple just doesn't build hardware to market to niche segments.

While Apple may revolutionize the netbook category somewhere on down the line (like they did with the iPhone and iPod -- they weren't first by a long shot, just the best), I think less than 6 months is a tad overzealous in looking for an Apple-branded netbook (other than the current Air).

[lbj]

Unproven? How is a market "unproven" for a known, existing device that has sales?

Sure, the market for underwater helicopters is unproven, but certainly not for netbooks.

"...manufacturers shipped just 450,000 units globally in 2007, but 10 million units in 2008, according to the Consumer Electronics Assn. This year, netbook sales are expected to grow 80% to 18 million units."

hmmm, half a million to 18 million in two years...and during a global recession?

"According to Gartner and DisplaySearch, 5.6mn netbooks were sold in Q3 2008. To put things in perspective, 4.7mn iPhones were sold during that same period. 14mn netbooks were sold in all of 2008 and already netbooks account for 10% of the total PC market in Europe."

Just exactly what constitutes a proven and/or exploding market in your view?

[ElDiabloConCaca]

Well, since there have already been over 140 million computers sold and shipped just in the first half of 2009 alone, I would say that 18 million is most definitely a "niche" market.

By my estimates, in 2007, far over 20 million iPods were sold.

Not to mention that 18,000,000 is an estimate. We'll have to wait and see how close netbooks come to that mark. I'd be willing to bet they either don't make it or barely crest it.

I can say that in 2007 I sold 4 of something and in 2008 I sold 80 of that same something. Is that explosive growth? By percentages, yes -- by numbers, no.

[Greg_Reez]

I'm not exactly sure who this type of thing would appeal to. It's a big iPhone without the phone, and a small Macbook without the power. It kind of gets rid of everything that people want and need. I CAN imagine it being purchased by those who already have a powerful machine, and need a smaller supplement that they can carry to business meetings, classes, vacations, roadtrips, etc. And from time to time be able to sync it with their main computer. A tablet would hardly be worth it for anyone looking to us it as their main computer. But have tablets and miniature devices like this EVER seen success in the past?

[g/re/p]

http://eshop.macsales.com/shop/Modbo...FRAhDQodD1fnAA

[lbj]

Originally Posted by ElDiabloConCaca

… netbooks appeal to and sell the most to gear-heads and techies, which in the grand scheme of things, is an extremely small market segment.

All our beloved gear, Apple or otherwise, started out as “toys” for gear-heads and techies.

450k supplies the gear heads, 18 million represents penetration far beyond mere geeks.

Originally Posted by ElDiabloConCaca

Apple just doesn't build hardware to market to niche segments.

coughAppleTVcough

It’s estimated there are fewer than 500,000 ATVs ever sold, and yet for 2009, Jobs himself said it will continue as a “hobby”.

Originally Posted by ElDiabloConCaca

… I think less than 6 months is a tad overzealous in looking for an Apple-branded netbook (other than the current Air).

Not at all, they are already using all the hardware. All they need to do is source a smaller screen (which are everywhere), develop a decent small keyboard (ok, this is an Apple worthy challenge), and design a smaller-than-Air package. And they have been thinking and working on this for well more than 6 months now.

Originally Posted by ElDiabloConCaca

Well, since there have already been over 140 million computers sold and shipped just in the first half of 2009 alone, I would say that 18 million is most definitely a "niche" market.

6.5% is “niche”? Really?

Apple only very recently surpassed 6.5% of the computer market. Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes combined, let me repeat--combined, have less than 6.5% of the US car market. LG has less than 6.5% of the flat panel market.

Niche?

Originally Posted by ElDiabloConCaca

Not to mention that 18,000,000 is an estimate…I'd be willing to bet they either don't make it or barely crest it.

So it doesn't sound like 18 million is entirely unreasonable.

Originally Posted by ElDiabloConCaca

I can say that in 2007 I sold 4 of something and in 2008 I sold 80 of that same something. Is that explosive growth? By percentages, yes -- by numbers, no.

And this may be where we fundamentally disagree and will likely not find common ground. Both by percentage and actual number, the change is “explosive”. Or would you prefer “exponential”? Because netbooks are the only part of the computer market that is currently growing “exponentially”. Actually, it’s the only segment of the computer market that is growing at all.

Let me close by saying If anything I had, held, owned, sold, bartered, built, loaned, you-name-it, increased 40-fold in two years…then yes, I would call it explosive. I'm not trying to pick a fight, just feel strongly that Apple should, and will, enter this proven market in 2009.

[ElDiabloConCaca]

Originally Posted by lbj

All our beloved gear, Apple or otherwise, started out as “toys” for gear-heads and techies.

Like MP3 players... smartphones... wireless routers... yet Apple was not the company that "started out" with these -- they waited and entered a mature market. They were not the first, just the best. Apple brings technology to the masses -- they don't come out with the first of a certain kind of product -- they take an existing, mature market, and revolutionize it.

coughAppleTVcough

It’s estimated there are fewer than 500,000 ATVs ever sold, and yet for 2009, Jobs himself said it will continue as a “hobby”.

My point exactly... Apple has admitted that the AppleTV is more of an experiment than anything. Still, it was marketed to the masses -- an easy way to bring your digital lifestyle (which just about everyone has one of those now) to the living room. Still: marketed to a large population, not a niche market.

Everyone watches TV -- not everyone wants something "more than a phone, but less than a laptop."

Not at all, they are already using all the hardware. All they need to do is source a smaller screen (which are everywhere), develop a decent small keyboard (ok, this is an Apple worthy challenge), and design a smaller-than-Air package. And they have been thinking and working on this for well more than 6 months now.

I'm not saying that the technology doesn't exist -- I'm just saying that I don't think the timing is right. I have no doubt in my mind that in some top-secret lab deep inside 1 Infinite Loop that there is a lot of testing and super-secret hardware that has something to do with a "netbook." Apple plays with a lot of different stuff -- very little of it actually makes it to market.

6.5% is “niche”? Really?

Apple only very recently surpassed 6.5% of the computer market. Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes combined, let me repeat--combined, have less than 6.5% of the US car market. LG has less than 6.5% of the flat panel market.

Niche?

Whoa -- I understand that statistics can be used to "bend the truth" somewhat, but now you're mixing two totally different statistics -- market share vs. whom a company markets to -- and you can't do that.

Do you think that because Apple only holds 6.5% of the market that their products and ad campaigns are only intended for 6.5% of the population's eyes? Apple may hold only 6.5% of the market, but they market (read: advertise and develop for) to a very broad range of the population -- much, much, much more than 6.5%.

The same with VW -- the Jetta is the ubiquitous and all-purpose sedan. Regular, ol' 4-door sedans have such broad appeal -- everyone from those just getting their license to elderly people are attracted to the Jetta. They market the Jetta to more than 50% of the population of developed countries. Just because only 3.276% of the people bought VW over Ford doesn't mean that the company is only "marketing to 3.276% of the population." They hold a small market share, yet market toward a much larger percentage of the population. Two, completely different kinds of percentages and statistics that cannot be interchanged freely.

Being a "niche brand" is something totally different than a "niche market."

So it doesn't sound like 18 million is entirely unreasonable.

No, not unreasonable at all. Many more flat-panel TVs were sold than that -- should Apple make TVs? Just because something sells well doesn't mean Apple should automatically jump on board with an Apple-branded version of it.

And this may be where we fundamentally disagree and will likely not find common ground. Both by percentage and actual number, the change is “explosive”. Or would you prefer “exponential”? Because netbooks are the only part of the computer market that is currently growing “exponentially”. Actually, it’s the only segment of the computer market that is growing at all.

Let me close by saying If anything I had, held, owned, sold, bartered, built, loaned, you-name-it, increased 40-fold in two years…then yes, I would call it explosive. I'm not trying to pick a fight, just feel strongly that Apple should, and will, enter this proven market in 2009.

No, no, I'm not picking a fight either -- just friendly debate and banter. Nothing personal meant, nothing personal taken. It's all good -- we're still friends!

I will agree with the many people who think an Apple-branded, optionally touchscreen "netbook" (whatever that comes out meaning) would be cool. But "cool" doesn't mean it will sell well, nor does "cool" mean it will have wide-range appeal. iPods have wide-range appeal -- toddlers to grandmothers are fascinated by them, can afford them, and can use them with relative ease. Laptop computers have wide-range appeal: students, mothers, businesspeople, travelers, etc. iPhones have wide-range appeal: you don't see soccer moms toting about their Acer-branded netbooks, but you'd be hard-pressed to find one without an iPod or iPhone.

I just don't think "netbooks" have the market penetration abilities that Apple seeks. They revolutionize entire segments of the technology sector by creating products that simplify the technology to a point where one doesn't need a degree to understand how to use them. They also produce products that everyone (and when I say, "everyone," I mean the 80% rule) wants -- everyone wants music-to-go. Everyone wants a cell phone. Everyone wants a laptop... desktop. The line is blurred when it comes to netbooks, though -- too underpowered to be a full-fledged computer, too large to tote in a purse -- it's just a product that's stuck in limbo in my mind... doesn't know what it wants to be. Doesn't have the impact that Apple's looking for. Doesn't have everyday useful traits -- it's just a smaller laptop without as many features and power.

If (and when) Apple makes their "netbook," I would be willing to bet my left nut that it doesn't resemble current netbooks in the sense of being a computer that folds in half, one half containing a screen, and the other half containing a keyboard. That's too... plain and done. I'm sure Apple will all teach us a lesson in the ease of use and the usefulness of a portable, tiny computer -- but not in the current form factor.

[lbj]

Ding, Ding, Ding ... Round 3

Originally Posted by ElDiabloConCaca

Like MP3 players... smartphones... wireless routers... yet Apple was not the company that "started out" with these -- they waited and entered a mature market. They were not the first, just the best. Apple brings technology to the masses -- they don't come out with the first of a certain kind of product -- they take an existing, mature market, and revolutionize it.

I personally don't feel they entered any of your examples when the market was mature. Developed? Yes. Proven? Yes. But not mature. And that is precisely why they were so successful on these fronts. No one had yet gotten them quite right...until Apple put the final tweaks in place. And nothing is "first" about a netbook so this doesn't break your paradigm.

Originally Posted by ElDiabloConCaca

My point exactly... Apple has admitted that the AppleTV is more of an experiment than anything. Still, it was marketed to the masses -- an easy way to bring your digital lifestyle (which just about everyone has one of those now) to the living room. Still: marketed to a large population, not a niche market.

I'm confused. Why would the MacNet not be marketed to a large population? I don't think Apple could build enough $650 MacNets <<provided>> they get the keyboard right. And notice I'm starting the MacNet at double the price of the "competition".

Originally Posted by ElDiabloConCaca

Everyone watches TV -- not everyone wants something "more than a phone, but less than a laptop."

Who wants less than a laptop? I just want a smaller one.

Originally Posted by ElDiabloConCaca

Whoa -- I understand that statistics can be used to "bend the truth" somewhat, but now you're mixing two totally different statistics -- market share vs. whom a company markets to -- and you can't do that.

Huh? Who brought up marketing share?? As a stockholder, I don't care about marketING share, I care about market share. Who is doing the mixing here? Apple didn't squirrel away 15 billion dollars cash by marketing. They did it by selling.

Originally Posted by ElDiabloConCaca

Do you think that because Apple only holds 6.5% of the market that their products and ad campaigns are only intended for 6.5% of the population's eyes? Apple may hold only 6.5% of the market, but they market (read: advertise and develop for) to a very broad range of the population -- much, much, much more than 6.5%.........Two, completely different kinds of percentages and statistics that cannot be interchanged freely.

So quit with the slight of hand already! (honestly said with respect) I never for one second inferred that Apple is only interested in, caters towards, develops for, or markets to only 6.5% of the market. My intent was to point out that while you are poo-pooing 18 million units or 6.5% of something as irrelevant or "niche", I'm trying to point out that those exact same sales represent the lifeblood of very mainstream products and very mainstream companies. Why do you have the idea that I think Apple should only market the MacNet to a very narrow spectrum? I think they should market it to the masses. And this may be a source of underlying disagreement; I feel the potential MacNet market is huge and growing...and you may not.

Originally Posted by ElDiabloConCaca

Being a "niche brand" is something totally different than a "niche market."

You missed my point entirely or I did a poor job of communicating. I'm not calling any of the companies a niche brand. And I don't feel any of their products are aimed squarely at a niche market. Just the opposite. They are mainstream. And I feel the netbook market has slipped outside the confines of niche.

Originally Posted by ElDiabloConCaca

No, not unreasonable at all. Many more flat-panel TVs were sold than that -- should Apple make TVs? Just because something sells well doesn't mean Apple should automatically jump on board with an Apple-branded version of it.

Um...ok...Let me try this another way: A netbook is a portable computer and Apple is in the business of portable computing. I'm not seeing the stretch you're implying...

Originally Posted by ElDiabloConCaca

I will agree with the many people who think an Apple-branded, optionally touchscreen "netbook" (whatever that comes out meaning) would be cool. But "cool" doesn't mean it will sell well, nor does "cool" mean it will have wide-range appeal. iPods have wide-range appeal -- toddlers to grandmothers are fascinated by them, can afford them, and can use them with relative ease. Laptop computers have wide-range appeal: students, mothers, businesspeople, travelers, etc. iPhones have wide-range appeal: you don't see soccer moms toting about their Acer-branded netbooks, but you'd be hard-pressed to find one without an iPod or iPhone.

I don't think I ever used the word "cool". Yes, iPods and iPhone are popular in a way that netbooks have yet to achieve. Maybe that's because Apple has yet to introduce one?

Originally Posted by ElDiabloConCaca

They revolutionize entire segments of the technology sector by creating products that simplify the technology to a point where one doesn't need a degree to understand how to use them.

I'm a huge fanboy. Have been since 1991. But I don't agree. Nothing revolutionary about the PowerMac, iMac, or MacBooks. Nothing revolutionary about the iPod. Absolute best in class? Yes! But until the iPhone, nothing else changed the entire playing field in a way that <<I>> would define as "revolutionary". (Ok, I will also grant iTunes Music Store and OSX as huge game changers). But the hardware?

Originally Posted by ElDiabloConCaca

...it's just a smaller laptop without as many features and power.

You just described the entire iPod line. I'm not asking for a brand spanking new concept, just a smaller version of what they already have. Mini-iMac-PowerMac. Shuffle-Nano-Classic-Touch. MacNet-MacBook-MacBook Pro.

Originally Posted by ElDiabloConCaca

If (and when) Apple makes their "netbook," I would be willing to bet my left nut that it doesn't resemble current netbooks in the sense of being a computer that folds in half, one half containing a screen, and the other half containing a keyboard. That's too... plain and done.

Why does it have to be so exotic? Yes, I get punch drunk looking at Apple's current products. And I love the way each of them look, feel, and operate. But past the rose colored glasses, all their products (again, iPhone is a rule breaker) have similar form factors to their competition.

Originally Posted by ElDiabloConCaca

I'm sure Apple will all teach us a lesson in the ease of use and the usefulness of a portable, tiny computer.

Agreed. And I think that lesson is sooner versus later and feel it will be more evolutionary than revolutionary. Especially to keep it in line with the current global economic climate. The time is right in more ways than one.