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#17
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That's "mature" all the way. Developed and proven over time... what's more "mature" than that? There wasn't anything wrong with the MP3 players on the market at all -- Apple just revolutionized and simplified them with great success. Quote:
I don't think that "large population" exists to market the netbook to. Quote:
It's a technology that is stuck between a smartphone and a full-sized laptop. I have no doubt that Apple will come along and redefine what a netbook is -- just not by Christmas. Quote:
My point was that it matters not how big a slice of the market Apple currently holds -- my point was that they advertise their products to a large segment of the population. Even if we wanted to talk "market share," we could talk about the fact that Apple holds much more than 6.5% of the smartphone market and damn near all of the digital music market. Quote:
Apple didn't squirrel away 15 billion dollars by selling -- that's a gross misunderstanding of how Apple was able to eliminate all their debt and put away billions in cash. It had to do with refining the pipeline that exists between the different channels involved in creating a computer -- the manufacturing of it, the shipping of it and how to eliminate stagnant stock sitting in warehouses (hint: it wasn't by selling the stagnant stock), etc. Apple got rid of their debt long before their computers were flying off the shelves, and it had little-to-nothing to do with the volume of computers they sold. Quote:
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I'm not saying it'll never be that way, I'm just saying we're not there yet. The market is small -- 18 million or not -- that's still small. Not to mention that the market needs to carry that growth -- you can't just have an 18-million-sales-year then have sales slump off... it has to be an ever-growing market (again, the iPod and iPhone). I think the netbook surge (if one can call it that) is a fad at this point. Soccer moms and grandmothers know damn well what an iPod and an iPhone are, and know that they're in demand. Try saying "netbook" to them, though, and more often than not, they won't know what it is nor will they have seen one. How many regular Joes do you know with netbooks? I know none. I know a few nerds that have them -- perhaps a few geeks, too, and maybe even a dork or two. I think I saw some dude on campus with one once. The geeks of the world are a niche market, much like pregnant women -- there will always be some, but they'll never be the majority (which is what Apple designs and markets their consumer-level products for). Quote:
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I am positive that when Apple does some form of netbook, it will be both "cool" and have the broad appeal that the rest of their consumer-level products have. Quote:
Revolutionary: when people were stuck thinking that speed was everything, Apple came along and taught them different. The iMac revolutionized a lot of things: the all-in-one computer, the first computer geared toward getting you on the internet quickly, and the proliferation of the USB standard. Without the iMac, arguably, USB would not be where it is today. Quote:
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I see "evolutionary" as the natural progression of things -- if Apple doesn't do it, someone else eventually will. I see "revolutionary" as someone/thing approaching an existing thing and improving on it in a way that no one else can -- I hope we can agree that the scrollwheel was genius, and it wasn't like there were a bunch of companies racing to get their scrollwheel out first. Apple did it and blindsided the industry, and everyone rushed to copy it because they were upset to know that it was something they would have never though of. I think Apple is "revolutionary" with many of their products, and "evolutionary" as well. As a company, you'd have to be. Quote:
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Go use a Zune for a day. Or a Sony walkman MP3 player. Tell me that the hardware is the "same" as an iPod. Tell me the software works as well as the iPod software. Sure, the hardware is all metal, plastic and glass, just like any other, and the software is all bits and bytes not unlike any other software, but it goes beyond that. It's not that they use exotic materials, or funky shapes, or even software that is proprietary. It's the way they can integrate it all with elegance and intelligence, and bring what was once cumbersome and clunky to an elegant level that the majority of the population can understand, use, and be productive with. Quote:
We all know damn well that Apple's netbook will not be priced at $650 -- not at this point in time.
__________________ Mac mini 2.0GHz 10.6.1 4GB 320GB Superdrive 4 x 1TB USB 2.0 LED Cinema Display MacBook 2.0GHz Core 2 Duo - White 10.6.1 4GB 250GB CD-RW/DVD-ROM iPhone 3G 8GB iPod Touch 8GB iPod Photo 60GB iPod nano 1GB AT&T U-Verse 18Mb/2Mb http://www.jeffhoppe.com Last edited by ElDiabloConCaca; July 2nd, 2009 at 08:36 PM. |
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#18
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Yes. This is where my desire/argument will fail. Not that there isn't a netbook coming by year's end, but that it will be so expensive (ala Cube or Air) that folks will shrug and walk away.
__________________ iMac 2.4Ghz 4Gb 10.4.11 iBook G4 1.2Ghz 1.25Gb 10.4.11 iPhone 3G 16Gb 3.1 Dell Mini 9 1.6Ghz 2Gb 10.5.6 |
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#19
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If we keep quoting each other, no one else will read this. I'll reply more selectively now, but concur that over the long term, stock price tends to go up as a company gains market share -- but will not concur that market share is the main influence in a stock price's upward movement... a company can both gain market share while stock prices go down. They are not "linked at the hip."And I do think that MP3 players were more common than netbooks are now, comparatively. MP3 players were a natural transition from tape players and CD players (tapes -> CDs -> MP3 CDs -> MP3 players), and the market had matured enough and very well-known outside of the "geek" circle. So much so that they were encroaching on "mainstream." Quote:
I also found Microsoft's stock increased in price steadily, as did Apple's, much of the time coinciding. Does that mean that both were gaining market share at the same time, somehow pushing the maximum past 100%? I'll agree that market share does good for a company's stock, but that's how it happens and is not a set-in-stone rule. Downsizing, specializing and segmenting also can drive the perceived stock value up. Just because a company's stock goes up does not mean that the company must be gaining market share -- and, just because a company is gaining market share does not mean that the stock price will magically go up. I'll concur that perceived value can drive stock worth skyward, but there are many ways that a company can perform in order to increase that perceived value... one of which is expanding. Quote:
Yes, sales are required, but not exponential growth. If Apple would have continued with Gil Amelio's convoluted computer lineup and the excess of stock in the warehouses, only an unachievable amount of sales would have saved Apple. Answering, "How did Apple become debt-free?" with, "They sold more computers," is looking only at the tip of the iceberg. The sales were the end result of everything before it. Apple could have kept their sales exactly constant, while doing everything else (making the assembly/delivery/sales pipeline much, much, much more efficient, in turn reducing the backlog of stock) and still paid off their debt. Efficient pipelines make for more profit, and more profit allows you to pay off debt. Again, I think it's a stretch to entangle the concept of higher numbers of sales with paying off debt. Quote:
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I don't see that kind of thing happening with netbooks -- what do people need on-the-go that a laptop or an iPhone don't already satisfy? Would it be possible to simply improve on the iPhone or laptop instead of adding another category to the product lineup that does exactly what the iPhone and the laptop already do? Quote:
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Again, hey, that would be cool and I'd love to have one. Obviously, you would too. I just don't think there are enough people like us to justify that kind of endeavor for Apple within the next 6 months. Sure, we can find thousands of people in tech forums and Apple fan-boy sites to think that there are enough out there, but that's a skewed representation of the actual population and whom Apple markets to. Quote:
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__________________ Mac mini 2.0GHz 10.6.1 4GB 320GB Superdrive 4 x 1TB USB 2.0 LED Cinema Display MacBook 2.0GHz Core 2 Duo - White 10.6.1 4GB 250GB CD-RW/DVD-ROM iPhone 3G 8GB iPod Touch 8GB iPod Photo 60GB iPod nano 1GB AT&T U-Verse 18Mb/2Mb http://www.jeffhoppe.com |
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#20
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I think you win because you have me now going on the defense. ![]() As for anyone else reading this, I hope to God they have better things to do right now. Go hug your sig other. Play with your kids. Enjoy the sunset. Trap a firefly. Anything but keep up with this endless tripe. I will follow your lead and skip with the quotes. My comments will roughly follow the flow of yours so it should be easy to follow along for anyone who is crazy enough to keep up. ![]() I never said "market share is the main influence in a stock price's upward movement". Why do you keep saying that I said that? It is a factor. An important factor. Not the only factor. Never said otherwise. Once again, number of units sold by margin per unit. Period. You can tweak that equation on either side, volume or margin, or both, but both sides (volume and margin) will determine profitability. You can't ignore either factor. Well...I guess you could...but as a Company you would be stupid to ignore either volume or margin. I never said "linked at the hip". I never implied, again, that it is just market share (and market share alone) causing stock price to go up. In fact, I went out of my way to mention margin per unit plus perception. Please don't oversimplify my comments. I never said "set-in-stone" rule I never said that increasing stock price means the company must be gaining market share Also never implied that gaining market share means stock price will magically go up. And never used the word "magically". I never said "magnificent sales" were needed to drive down debt. I never said exponential growth is required either. And what the heck is up with this line: "Answering, "How did Apple become debt-free?" with, "They sold more computers," is looking only at the tip of the iceberg." That was never my argument OR my statement. I never brought debt into this. Although I'm not afraid to talk debt, this line is a classic example on how my admittedly simplified points are exaggerated, out of proportion, in an attempt to aid your arguments. I never argued about debt originally and never said volume was the sole road to financial Nirvana. You can sell all you want, but if your cost per unit outstrips your income per unit, you are screwed. And actually, the scenario you lay out...basically, same volume sales, but with drastically increased margins (via increased efficiencies) is precisely how they paid down their 80's and 90's debt. Why are we arguing what we both believe to be true?? What do people need that is already not satisfied? A bigger iPhone or smaller laptop is the overly simple answer. Can you improve either sufficiently? Well, you don't want the iPhone bigger (for a "real" keyboard and larger screen) and if you make the laptop smaller.....well damn, you are doing exactly what I want and expect. Nice try but neither existing product fills the in-between step--unless you shrink the size of the MacBook. And while you are at it, shrink the overall processing power and energy consumption for longer battery life. Bonus points if it will fit in my wife's purse or in my zippered portfolio. Extra bonus points if it will run more or less a full day on a single charge. You know, so we don't have to carry around an extra computer bag or oversize "back pack" in our business attire. Something with full "Office" like capability and full mail and internet but able to toss into whatever hand held "article" we are carrying (purse, briefcase, portfolio) or wearing? Cargo pocket anyone? How did they "revolutionize" the all in one concept? They had one, actually several, well before the iMac. So did Compac and I'm sure others. How did they revolutionize it other than make it "cute" and add colored plastic? No. I'm serious. Answer the question. How was it revolutionary? Don't get me wrong. It was a brilliant, bold concept. But not a revolution. Unless you consider orange a revolution. Here we are again, you talking "first to market". Nothing first about a netbook. Every other player has them. I don't use that as justification why Apple should be in the fray, just to remind you they wouldn't be first. You don't see the market? I sure hope Apple does. The market is right. Now more than ever.
__________________ iMac 2.4Ghz 4Gb 10.4.11 iBook G4 1.2Ghz 1.25Gb 10.4.11 iPhone 3G 16Gb 3.1 Dell Mini 9 1.6Ghz 2Gb 10.5.6 |
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#21
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It wasn't revolutionary in terms of hardware, but in terms of mass appeal and ease of use (remember the commercial about the PC vs. the new iMac, and the steps needed to get each on the internet? Little Billy, age 7, won that hands down -- not to mention the "There is no step 3" ad campaign). It also used the G3 processor (not the first to use it, but the most well-known to use it) -- a relatively new RISC-based processor that was faster than Pentium counterparts clocked at higher speeds. It also was the beginning of the end of the floppy drive (again, not the first to ditch it, but the most important to ditch it). Apple was chastised for this, but people soon saw the light that it was a dying technology. The iMac was revolutionary in helping people to understand that a floppy drive wasn't needed anymore. A new era of removable media was in: the CD-ROM, and solely the CD-ROM. The iMac wasn't the first with a CD-ROM by a long shot, but the first with only a CD-ROM. In my opinion, the first bondi-blue iMac was, indeed, revolutionary. It redefined what people expected out of their personal computers. Not to mention it was "cute," and it could be argued that it's the first time people starting caring not only about the performance of their computers, but their aesthetics as well. In a sea of beige blocks, the iMac stood firmly out front and grabbed attention -- enough attention that some people credit it with starting the turn-around of Apple at the time. Revolutionary doesn't have to mean "futuristic" or "uses some exotic material" or "operates in a way unbeknownst to mankind before this time." (Quotes are mine for emphasis -- not implying you said any of that) Quote:
Perhaps we can end this with a handshake, pat on the back, and a simple gentlemen's bet: you say "Apple netbook" before the end of the year, and I say "no Apple netbook" before the end of the year. Deal?
__________________ Mac mini 2.0GHz 10.6.1 4GB 320GB Superdrive 4 x 1TB USB 2.0 LED Cinema Display MacBook 2.0GHz Core 2 Duo - White 10.6.1 4GB 250GB CD-RW/DVD-ROM iPhone 3G 8GB iPod Touch 8GB iPod Photo 60GB iPod nano 1GB AT&T U-Verse 18Mb/2Mb http://www.jeffhoppe.com Last edited by ElDiabloConCaca; July 3rd, 2009 at 08:23 AM. |
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#22
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Well to pipe into this argument I feel Apple is positioning itself to reintroduce a 12 inch (or smaller) Mac Book Mini or something along that line.
__________________ Mac Pro Dual 2.8 Quad (1st gen), 6G Ram, Two DVD-RW Drives, OS X 10.6.1 Mac Book Pro Core 2 Duo 2.16Ghz, SuperDrive, ATI X1600, 2GB RAM, OS X 10.6.1 2TB Time Capsule 32G iPhone 3GS Black |
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#23
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I think they rather extend the iPhone platform. So: A larger iPod touch, yes. Apple doesn't think much of small notebooks. I mean: They've _never_ done a real subnotebook after the Duo line - and certainly never under Steve Jobs. Listen to the introduction of the MacBook Air once more, and about how proud they were that its keyboard is full-size and the screen is 13.3". But a larger iPod touch, I can see that. If it has 3G networking, just imagine the ease of use of Mobile Safari on the iPhone now, but with much better readability. (Of course it'll also tackle E-Books much better.) (Satcomer: Your current signature makes your MacBook Pro look incredibly slow..., 2.16 MHz??)
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#24
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| But Apple doesn't want us to read -- they want us to listen to someone else read -- ahem -- audiobooks and podcasts. ![]() Reading is so 2000.
__________________ Mac mini 2.0GHz 10.6.1 4GB 320GB Superdrive 4 x 1TB USB 2.0 LED Cinema Display MacBook 2.0GHz Core 2 Duo - White 10.6.1 4GB 250GB CD-RW/DVD-ROM iPhone 3G 8GB iPod Touch 8GB iPod Photo 60GB iPod nano 1GB AT&T U-Verse 18Mb/2Mb http://www.jeffhoppe.com |
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