Apple: Once a year upgrade standardization

mi5moav

mi5moav

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I think Apple is very close to the once a year computer upgrade standardization. I have a feeling that Jobs is going to mention something like this at WWDC. Many are not going to like it since they don't understand it to well. But it is really the most important step the computer industry can do right now. It will bring cost down a bit and help sell product now. Everyone can look for some really good upgrades come June. I think we will hit the 3.0 mark.(doesn't mean it will ship then) 2.0 2.6 3.0. ibook, emac will be upgraded sooner then later... Still am not 100% sure of the powerbooks since G5 won't be in them till Next year. So, we will see a once a year product upgrade like the automobile industry but probably 2 price drops a year.... 4-6 months into it and 45 to 60 days before new products released. This way no one has to play the guessing game and everyone will have the latest and greatest at the best price at the time.
 
I don't think this is necessarily true. While you bring up compelling arguments, I think this is more a symptom of Apple migrating to brand new hardware and a brand new chip. IBM is going to be able to get Apple the product they need and once these generation one blues pass, we'll be back in line for atleast 6 month cycles.
 
mi5moav said:
This way no one has to play the guessing game and everyone will have the latest and greatest at the best price at the time.
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I'm not sure how this is good for Apple.

If you can tell when Apple is going to put out the next version of a product, what is to stop you from waiting until that release? Apple has to move inventory.

What is current is current until it is not current. Keeping sales even is important. They already know that there is going to be a spike in sales with any new release which then drops after the introduction period until it levels off. If people knew exactly when Apple was going to release new versions, there would be a drop in sales as you get closer to the release date. By not telling people when that date is, you at least hold sales level.

This is not to say that Apple isn't predictable. In somethings they are. For example the Mac OS. If we look at the last 7 major upgrades and the periods between them we have:
  • 7.6 to 8.0: 6 months
  • 8.0 to 8.5 : 15 months
  • 8.5 to 9.0: 12 months
  • 9.0 to 10.0: 17 months
  • 10.0 to 10.2: 17 months
  • 10.2 to 10.3: 14 months
Which is averaging 13.5 months (which is within about two weeks of the amount of time between the release of the last two versions). If Apple follows this pattern, then 10.4 should come out around Dec. 7, 2004 (about 13.5 months after the release of 10.3 on Oct. 24, 2003).

The point is that it is not quite a year which keeps people guessing... and buying.
 
Look at the automobile industry. Everyone wants a brand new shiny car. Everyone can find out when a car is going to be available at the dealer. Some order the car before hand, many buy it the first week its available, some wait a month, some wait till their car breaks down while others wait till the new models are about to come out to get some price breaks. Of course those that want the latest and greatest on the block pay for it a bit early. This way we won't have people crying damn I just spent 25,000 on a camry if I would have only waited another week. If the entire computer industry does this, just like almost any other consumer big ticket purchase tv, vacuum, washing machine, it will help Apple both on marketing, and product development cost since they can spend 1/2 a year coming up with the latest and greatest and then put it into action. Software updates may come more frequently but hardware will probably become a once a year thing. Of course, they will be staggered not everything is going to come out on June 1. Probably a 3 month window in the summer for big ticket and a 2 month window fall winter for consumer/home product like ipod and such. Even if Apple doesn't go this way within 2 years the rest of the industry will.
 
RacerX is right. And the rest of the industry isn't going to try and make like the auto industry. It's comparing apples and oranges. You've never seen a set time for new television sets to be rolled out by manufacturers.
Apple is making money, and while its share could be larger, the days of people predicting its demise should have come and go. An annual rollout of devices wouldn't keep people asking for me. Check out this site or any other with the threads on which device will be updated when (maybe this week? next?). That's a powerful marketing ploy and Apple ain't going to be changing it anytime soon.
 
Randman said:
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You've never seen a set time for new television sets to be rolled out by manufacturers.
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Simply not true. New TV sets are introduced on or about July 1 each year.
 
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