# Who's to blame in Egypt?



## pds (Jan 30, 2011)

Egypt is in flames, with protests going on for 7 days now. Crowds are defying curfews and tanks, calling for the removal of Hosni Mubarak, virtual king of the country for the last 30 years, and his cronies.

Mubarak has been propped up by US aid that was a promise to Sadat for the Camp David Accords, brokered by Jimmy Carter. The past ten years have brought a vast improvements in the economic environment throughout Egypt (I lived through lots of it.) but that development has benefitted the few more than the many. Political development has lagged terribly as police brutality is commonplace and disappearances a fact of life, especially for the members of the Muslim Brotherhood, a fundamentalist movement that is officially outlawed, but somehow tolerated. Unemployment - especially for the young - is very high and discontent rules. 

Usually that discontent expresses itself in despair, but somehow it has become a mixture of anger and hope and the gauntlet has been thrown down. Mubarak has to go.

But if he goes - who takes over?


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## pds (Jan 31, 2011)

So, lets pretend the Brotherhood takes over and creates an Islamic republic. Can they be more oppressive than a regime that turns off all communication between its citizens and shuts down all internet connectivity to the world?


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## Rhisiart (Jan 31, 2011)

pds said:


> The past ten years have brought a vast improvements in the economic environment throughout Egypt (I lived through lots of it.) but that development has benefitted the few more than the many.


India has also seen rapid growth that has only benefit some over the many and it is a democracy.

That said, I would like to see the Arab dictators go (like Ben Ali in Tunisia) as I believe the longer they stay in power the more likely that radical Islamist will strengthen their grip.


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## Satcomer (Jan 31, 2011)

To me part of what going on is good. However the fear I have is the rise of Radicalism from these so-called groups. I am a realist and know these unsavory groups are very well organized and I am really afraid these "kids" protesting for better government will be usurped by these Radicals.


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## pds (Jan 31, 2011)

That's what I see happening. The Brothers are very cagey and they know they have the only grass-roots mechanism in the country. Free elections will give them power, just as it did Hamas (also a grass-roots social movement that provides food and shelter to people while convincing losers to walk into a marketplace with a bomb full of nails strapped to their chest).

There are very few revolutions is history that have ended well. It will be important for the US to put the right amount of aid through to the interim government to help ensure that the Brothers don't take over. They are decidedly anti-west.


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## pds (Jan 31, 2011)

An interesting feature that bears mentioning - the oft maligned Wikileaks may be just the thing to show that the Islamist canard that America has only ever supported Mubarak the dictator for what it is. There are lots of communications showing American frustration with the hard-headed Hosni as they tried to push him to allow for more participation in the political process.

BTW - the political process in Egypt is a mis-nomer. Less than 5% of the eligible voters in Egypt ever go to vote and many who did were already dead (but I guess they weren't really eligible then, were they?)


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## pds (Jan 31, 2011)

Rhisiart said:


> India has also seen rapid growth that has only benefit some over the many and it is a democracy.
> 
> That said, I would like to see the Arab dictators go (like Ben Ali in Tunisia) as I believe the longer they stay in power the more likely that radical Islamist will strengthen their grip.



Yeah - economic growth by its nature benefits the top players - the sowers reap. 

The problem in Egypt was that capital was liberalized but human rights were trampled by a brutal secret police system. There was a revolving door at the prisons and (depending on who was telling the tale) between 4,500 and 10,000 "members" of the Muslim Brotherhood were locked-up at any one time. 

And it wasn't for anything particular that they were doing. If you had the right kind of beard, you could be picked up at any time and you'd be gone for a month or two. Then they'd let go and arrest someone else to fill up your cell at the prison. I had a friend who got a visit from the Muhabarat at 3 am because his neighbors said he was a "Brother" (and a foreigner to boot). The next time anyone heard from him he was back in his native Sierra Leone.


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## Satcomer (Jan 31, 2011)

I heard someone today say that this whole Egypt reminds them of when the Shah feel in Iran in the 70's.  I was a young boy at the time (I know I am old) but I can see that person's point of view.


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## Rhisiart (Feb 1, 2011)

pds said:


> Yeah - economic growth by its nature benefits the top players - the sowers reap.
> 
> The problem in Egypt was that capital was liberalized but human rights were trampled by a brutal secret police system. There was a revolving door at the prisons and (depending on who was telling the tale) between 4,500 and 10,000 "members" of the Muslim Brotherhood were locked-up at any one time.
> 
> And it wasn't for anything particular that they were doing. If you had the right kind of beard, you could be picked up at any time and you'd be gone for a month or two. Then they'd let go and arrest someone else to fill up your cell at the prison. I had a friend who got a visit from the Muhabarat at 3 am because his neighbors said he was a "Brother" (and a foreigner to boot). The next time anyone heard from him he was back in his native Sierra Leone.


There is a democratic vacuum that I fear won't be filled by any moderate force for good.


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## james023 (Feb 7, 2011)

The clamor of the citizen of Egypt is the ouster of Mubarak, so let it be.
I think Majority of the Egyptians want it, so they're right with their decision to oust Mubarak from office.


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## Satcomer (Feb 7, 2011)

james023 said:


> The clamor of the citizen of Egypt is the ouster of Mubarak, so let it be.
> I think Majority of the Egyptians want it, so they're right with their decision to oust Mubarak from office.



I am happy you feel this way. I am just praying that the kids who started this can keep control of this protest. The Egyptian Government has already meet once with the radicals. I just hope the radicals don't usurps these legitimate protests!


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## rubaiyat (Feb 9, 2011)

Where's Egypt?


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## pds (Feb 9, 2011)

At the center of civilization if you ask an Egyptian. Somewhere near the armpit of humanity if you ask a cynic, at the crossroads of commerce if you ask a globalist and in the toilet if you ask anyone who used to live there.


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## Rhisiart (Feb 9, 2011)

Egypt is a terrific country. That said I preferred modern Egypt to all the (important) relics of gone by. It says something when, as a relatively classless person, you arrive in a country and feel instantly at home (like India).

The army is the key to the future of Egypt. If the US continues to subsidies the Egyptian Army then they may be the best hope as a bridging government to allow democracy to slowly evolve.

Better that than hardline religious elements.


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## fryke (Feb 9, 2011)

Yes. An army's always the best way to keep a democracy evolving. That was of course sarcasm, but I don't mean the army isn't important. I just think the most important thing about the army in an evolving democracy should be in the right place, not somehow _controlling_ "democracy".


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## pds (Feb 9, 2011)

I only recently have hope for the "shebab revolution." (Shebab means "young people.")

My own experience in Egypt was mostly with 12-25 year-olds and then those over 55. The older generation is amazingly civil, generous and responsible. Baradei is one of them as are Ayman Noor and Amr Moussa. I count ex-ministers as friends and they have wonderful characters and progressive ideas. But they are old. 

The kids are - to use an arabic phrase - _*wahesh*_ which means more or less bath water (as in to be thrown out). They are amazingly unable to take any responsibility for anything and are sure that their fathers will take care of their every need forever. In Egypt it takes a person till 28 to become 18 - for lots of reasons, not the least of which is that parents spoil them rotten. 

The revolution can work only if those 30 somethings can act in unison and get something done. The recent performance of Wael Ghoneim (the google guy) has given me hope that they can. They will need Ayman Noor and Baradei, Amr Moussa and even some present government people (but not Suleiman) to help, but I think that young professionals like Ghoneim, the executives in some of the cyber enterprises, the guys who own the Apple stores there, as well as the many young Doctors and engineers who have studied abroad can hold the Brotherhood at bay and maintain a stable state.

Perhaps I hope because the alternative is just too awful to contemplate.


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## Rhisiart (Feb 10, 2011)

fryke said:


> Yes. An army's always the best way to keep a democracy evolving. That was of course sarcasm


A justified sarcasm. Bur realpolitic ........


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