Enderle: How Linux and the Mac can compete against Longhorn

Ripcord

Ripcord

Senior Lurker
I read an article by Rob Enderle last night that I thought I'd share.

How Windows and the Mac can compete against Windows (Longhorn)

I'm not usually a fan of Enderle's stuff, but I have to admit that he's usually right.

This was probably one of the most fair (to everyone) pieces I've read so far about Mac and Linux as we look into the future to the release of Longhorn.

The marketing trumpeting hasn't started yet, but I'm sure that his assessment that Longhorn's launch will be an event with many parallels to the Win95 launch, except that he doesn't mention that this time around Microsoft will most likely be in a MUCH more strong position than in 1995, where it owned a considerably lower percentage of the desktop market.

One of my favorite parts was this:

The lesson of Windows 95 is that the dominant vendor doesn't have to be better than competing platforms, it only has to be good enough. Windows 2005 is likely to be "good enough," with some potential advantages.
Click to expand...

This is so true. Why do people continue to use Windows today? Because it's "good enough". Microsoft doesn't have to be the best. They most likely won't be with Longhorn, either. But if there isn't a dramatic advantage to the competing platforms, or if the advantage gap narrows, then Microsoft will probably gain an even larger share.

It will be very difficult for Apple to compete on technology alone - not because they won't have the technology, but because Microsoft has proven again and again that technology alone won't even necessarily secure you a place in history, let alone at the table. I'm a bit worried because not sure what else Apple have to compete on, otherwise (there's always the "we're not Microsoft" tack, but that usually only wins over only a small handful of customers).

And if Apple thinks they have a 3-year head start on Microsoft ("with Longhorn they're trying to bring Windows to where we were with Jaguar"), fine. But I hope they don't think that's enough. They better be working harder than they ever have before to maintain or increase that technology gap. And all signs are that with Longhorn, or between now and then, MS will be introducing new "practices" to give themselves even more leverage, which means that the "technological advantage" becomes even more important. (Think about this as an unlikely, but possible example: MS is no longer contractually obligated to provide Office for Mac after this year (I believe, maybe it's already expired). It's not impossible to imagine that between now and Longhorn's release, that Microsoft will steadily erode support, artificially introduce shortages of product, etc that make Office for Mac a loss maker (look what's happening with VPC for Mac right now). They eventually scrap the Mac BU because it's not making any money. What kind of impact will this have on the platform?)

And 3% of the market is not a good place to be. It's certainly not sustainable forever - at some point Adobe and Macromedia are going to stop producing software for the platform (I know I'm going to get replies on this) as Windows slowly continues the creep into the desktop publishing and graphic design businesses that it's been making over the last several years. It certainly isn't going to attract many new developers who will bring any "killer apps" giving additional reasons to switch. I haven't seen any indication that Jobs has any sort of "killer" plan to prevent this from happening and/or grow the market, he's just "doing the best he can", which has been pretty good considering the circumstances.

I'm not trying to be a troll or too negative here, just trying to be realistic. It won't help anyone to assume that "the way things are going now is just fine". They're not.

The only thing I didn't like about the article was his treatment of Linux. Everyone seems to underestimate Linux. Enderle admits he did as much in his article, and he appears to be doing the same again here. I'm not sure how many desktops we're going to see with Linux on them in 2005/2006, but I do know that Linux has been consistantly exceeding most analyst's expectations for quite a few years now.

In any case, I'm hoping this will at least prompt a good discussion.

Rip
 
The real problem lies not with Apple but with the armies of sheep all over the world... Apple offers some killer desktop and portables with some of the best OSes (client and server) if not killer OSes, as well as some killer apps not to mention the amazing combo of iTunes Music Store and iPod! Still, the sheep all over the world continue to fell over for that SOOOOO old crappy Wintel/Amd stuff :p

From Matrix:
The problem is choice!

From Matrix:
Choice is an illusion made from those with power and those with not!

:rolleyes:

:)
 
I believe that we'll begin to see a more distinct degree of separation in the market. Simply put, I see each platform developing a niche, and, for simple convenience, most of them will stick more or less in their niche.

Microsoft learnt something very important with XP, and more importantly, the skinning of the Operating System. They saw people theming their OS, making it attractive to them. I predict Longhorn having a very indepth, XML-syntax skin themeability, as is the case in programs like Windows Media Player, Trillian, Winamp, etc. When this is introduced, Apple will no longer be able to claim the title of prettiest OS, because people will be able to simply make an OS that suits them, or download one someone else has done. I see Microsoft providing a LARGE database of skins that you can freely download - a step towards being far more personable.

So Apple takes a hit there. Apple may do similarly, but only playing catchup, not innovating. It wont be impressive.

Apple has always, ALWAYS been an easier OS to pick up and use. Things make sense. Errors are helpful, dialogue boxes are instructive. It's an OS for beginners, and it's beautiful. Being so intune with the Hardware, it's able to give a more intuitive explanation of errors with Hardware, and all in all, it makes for a better user experience.

Windows has yet to match this. Their dilemma is that they have a large user base of power users, that don't wish to be treated like fools, and yet their system for ease of use has always been employing Wizards. For everything. Oh, and Clippy :|.

So it's a reasonable bet that until Microsoft realises that a massive switch should be in place that allows people to be shown POWER USER options instead of Wizards and Clippy and that Dog the search assistant, Apple will reign in the best for beginners market.

This is what Apple needs to advertise - steal THAT market. No more Windows is the only alternative.

The computer-owning market can be separated into groups of (at my best estimate) 75 percent novices, and 25% power users.

Once we've centred our MARKETING on novices, you look at the technology selling it to the power users.

As I said earlier, I think niches will become prevalent somewhat, and as a natural transition, Apple will adopt the graphics, desktop publishing and media fields.

This is already the case. You put an "i" infront of home users' things, the rest is "Power". If the distinction here is able to be widened, as I believe the 20 inch iMac is supposed to do, there's a whole range of home user Apples, for people who don't want to deal with the complex web that is Windows, and just want a pretty OS in a pretty box, operating well, that talks PROPERLY with the Windows world. With DRM this is going to get harder, and many of the Longhorn updates will make this really very difficult, but the open-source market usually works these things out pretty quickly.

The important thing Apple needs to do is make sure people look at the Power range as the MOST impressive solution to their problem. 64-bit will only be impressive for another two or three months, tops, at which point Intel will join AMD in mass-producing 64-bit processors, and the G5 will need something new. Something ELSE to impress people.

It's a scary thing to say in an Apple forum, but perhaps it's time to split the OS into two. Into MacOS and into some sort of PowerOS, which is heavily 64-bit, cuts down on the needless eye-candy for the sake of raw power. Remember when Apple first came out with the Macintosh concept, from the Apple /// and Apple ][s? They were just... inconceivably cool.

Do THAT again. Keep developing the MacOS, but make it effectively an iOS. An OS for people to have in their living rooms. One which is centred around your TV, your music, hey, make it operate your lights, your radio, your internet, your air conditioning. Make it truly your digital hub. And, if it's at all possible, bring back DOS cards into these things, so some Macs have x86 chips in them ASWELL, so you can have full compatibility with PCs again. Make it an easier choice to make to go with Apple - not always a non-conformist choice (Not sure as to the legality of such a thing).

Then make the PowerOS. One for the PowerMac, the PowerBook, the XServe - make it scarily powerful. Make it seem as though you really do have to be a computer genius to use it, but only SEEM that way - make it indestructable, safe, secure. Make it a geek's wet dream. Make it for Final Cut Pro, and for Adobe products. Make it faster, make it more powerful, and make it free. That's right. Free. The HARDWARE can cost money, but make the OS FREE. Make any updates FREE. Indefinately. But make them ONLY work on POWERMacs. POWERbooks. Put the processor(s) on a daughterboard that means you can upgrade it to the next level effortlessly. Make it so geeky, you steal Unix users.

And meanwhile, don't get rid of Cocoa. Write a Cocoa Classic OS so power users who don't like to see the pretty OSX interface can see what they're used to, but still let it run Cocoa apps in Platinum skinning - NO bitmaps. QUICK.

Plus this means that people on their iMacs with MacOS can still run any PowerOS Applications, if they WANT to. Design companies COULD fill their company with iMacs if they want, but if they want to be able to render a 3D scene, rotate a five-hundred Meg Photoshop file, and watch a DVD all at once, make them get a PowerMac. Or better yet, CALL them PowerPCs - make Power users think of it in the light of Unix, of Linux. Give open source developers enough of an image on how it all works (open-source the next Darwin) so they can submit OS improvements to Apple who can then incorporate them or otherwise into the, always free, PowerOS.

It's a whole new direction. It's wholly unApple.

Oh, and make enough money to afford all this.

*sigh*. I'm such a dreamer :p.
 
Regarding an iOS, you may want to check out this fledgling forum... that's the entire purpose thereof.

I agree, Apple should make two separate OS's, one for novices and one for power users. The novice OS would be more like the menu in a console or something, with predefined possible actions, and the power OS would be basically OS X with all the extra UNIX stuff turned on by default.

That would rule. ;)

BTW, "Power PC" already refers to a line of computer chips.
 
The important message for Apple and Linux, I guess, is that we now have a timeframe for success. A wakeup-call, so to speak. Come Longhorn, the chance will be over again for a while. But right now, Apple (and Linux) has the chance of digging holes into this structure of Windows' omnipresence. Get the rest of the graphics pros. Get some large business customers. Get an Office-competitor out. Get busy on the market - and aggressively so. Tell the Windows-users that the train will be GONE by the time Longhorn arrives. Make them switch, because there _is_ no alternative.

Let's get 20% of this market together with Linux (fifty-fifty). So that by the time of Longhorn's arrival, there'll be a different picture. A picture of _alternatives_ that are actually in the minds of the users...

And when Longhorn arrives, make sure that a switch from Windows XP to Longhorn is just as difficult (or even more) than a switch to Linux or the Mac (of course, a switch to the Mac still means buying new hardware...). And make the switch to the Mac the most attractive one. ;-)
 
Here here, well put fryke.

I sincerely hope Apple also figure out their marketing as well... have they ever promoted OS X in any tv ads!?
 
Apple should aggressively target switchers by offering to subsidize the cost of switching (new hardware *possibly*, new software for sure), either the first time or for a specific period (weeks? months? whatever). If you could go from a crappy work environment (Windows) to a great one (Mac) at a lower cost than it would cost to start with Mac from nothing, wouldn't you want to switch as well?

Software companies should also do something like this. If they don't already, they should offer upgrades for programs like Photoshop to people who own it for another platform. That would make it easier to switch and make it more enticing as well.
 
wah? Is longhorn a MAJOR wrewrite? like OS X was to OS 9? if so, that could kill M$, they have so many apps for Windows, that most might not get to Longhorn... or whatever... unless they put this environment that dual boots into XP to run WIndows apps... >.>
 
If Adobe drops Apple apps, Apple will just be forced to make the most killer graphic progrom, that would have to be better than photoshop. They have the best video programs, there is no reason they couldn't come up with the best graphics app.
 
Basically, what it comes down to is that Apple, SUSE, Sun, Redhat, etc need to start a serious marketing campaign directed at businesses. They all need to demonstrate their 'ease of use' (mainly Apple in this regards), stability, TCO, etc. Since there won't be anything 'new' in the coming few years from M$, this is the best time, and opportunity for these two platforms to try and compete against M$. With security being a huge issue, and patch management with microsoft, Apple has this one covered. Ease of use. Linux is quite secure as well, but in my opinion, more difficult to patch and update. OS Xs ease of use is really something that would be a strong selling point.
 
Apple and Linux vendors really need to take this 2-3yrs as a chance to prove what they are made of... It's their best chance in a longtime, IMO.
 
This is a good issue to talk about but i don't see mac os x and linux effecting the market unless we, the users, take action.
 
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