Prediction: Zune will surpass iPod within 2 years.

[Thank The Cheese]

No, I'm not trolling, I am serious. People give the Zune a hard time, but I have to say, I am getting this weird feeling that it is going to be very successful long term.

Maybe it's just the places I am hanging out both on and offline, but I feel like Apple and the iPod's sheen is starting to fade. The iPhone/Touch fiascos have certainly soured the good will towards Apple, and iPods have reached such saturation point that they are no longer cool.

In contrast, as much as I want to hate the Zune, the new models that are coming out, and the new interface/software, is pretty cool and has the special something. That indefinable quality the iPod used to have. Maybe it's just because it's different, or because it's the underdog, but I just have this feeling the iPod's days at the top are numbered.

on the other hand, if Windows' success has taught us anything, it's that people will use what they have always used, even if it is inferior. So perhaps the fact that the majority of people use iPods now means the majority of people will use iPods from now on.

I'd love to get people's thoughts on this.

 

[Natobasso]

Just because goodwill might be sagging a little bit doesn't mean that makes the Zune a good product. The trouble with it is it's got a great idea, but poorly executed. And how many record companies want their music 'squirted' from person to person?

However, if music becomes paid for by hardware rather than on its own (the new trend as seen with the latest Universal move) then the Zune becomes more and more compelling. Add to it the multi-touch table computer (make it smaller so it's a tablet on ANY table and you have a winner!) and then you've got some great cross-platform functionality.

I'm not worried about Apple's latest snafus, and guess what, neither are shareholders.

 

[Giaguara]

Sure, just like the VCRs killed the TV. Or the TV killed the radio, and VCRs and TV totally killed the movie industry.

 

[Thank The Cheese]

I agree version 1 was very poorly executed, and the universal deal alone will prevent me from buying one, but have you seen the new interface? it's greatly improved, with podcast support, and the iTunes equivalent software has been re-written from the ground up.

I think as Mac users it's easy to be smug about it and dismiss the Zune, but I think that would be a mistake. In fact, I think it's our smugness that is driving many people to the Zune in the first place.

 

[chevy]

I agree with Thank The Cheese that the new Zune is a much, much better device than the version 1. But at the same time appears the iPod touch. There is still a very wide gap between the Zune and the iPod, but Apple will not always win. Remember, all dinosaurs went extinct. Or transformed to completely different animals. Look at Edison company history, or IBM history...

 

[icemanjc]

So far I know 1 person with a Zune, and about 50 people with iPods, also you can get iPods cheap, Zunes are like 300, for half of what you get out of an iPod.

 

[fryke]

TTC: If I understand you correctly, you're feeling, vaguely, that currently is not the iPod's most glorious moment. You foresee that the Zune might have something (not touchable, just a "thing") the iPod once had. That's soooo vague that I can't take it as a sign at all. Then you say "2 years". Look two years back and you'll see that this market has seen _quite_ a bit of surprise. IIRC, there was talk that the Zune (version 1) would rock the iPod's world, and quite clearly, it didn't. I'm not saying "never" here, but I think the iPod's in quite a secure situation currently, and the iPhone's hype is still great. Remember: It's still not available in 99% of the world, and we're awaiting it eagerly.