Office won't be going away anytime soon. It's actually a product from M$ that's decent, and worth while (on both Windows and Mac). All those freebie Office alternatives are a pain, and aren't user friendly. Apple's really just wasting their time. Beat M$ with the OS, but let them handle the productivity suite.
Anyone who wants to talk software should read Joel Spolsky's book, "Joel on Software" - a cohesive collecting of many of the articles on his site. There's a whole section on commoditizing various parts of the computer biz. For instance, hardware companies want to commoditize software. Most network hardware companies want to commoditize off software and all computer hardware. Those who believe the web is the new GUI want to commoditize the browser. Browser manufacturers want to commoditize OSes... and on and on and on it goes.
In short, there are a lot of mindsets trying to trivialize and minimize a lot of other mindsets, and to level a playing field that is vast, diversified and filled with religious ferver about what's "right".
My *personal* opinion - (speaking only on the desktop)
Microsoft owns, and will continue to own, undisputed, the corporate and home desktop for at least the next two decades.
Apple is the *ONLY* operating system even *REMOTELY* capable of upsetting that balanace, but they need to completely reinvent the *PERCEPTION* that the general market-at-large has of them. Until then, they will still and ever be a 6% margin side note. (that's not bashing - I love my apple)
Linux will continue to live on the desktops of all 189 people, globally, who use it because they like it. It simply doesn't have *ANY* of *ANYTHING* that is needed to upset Apple who can't even upset Microsoft. It's a lame duck in a draining pond.
Much to my dismay and a *LOT* of other peoples' dismay, the Rich Client applications will begin to be more maginalized and niche-ized. Office will remain and will continue to be the king of the hill not only in Office Suites, but in *ALL* rich-client applications.
Web-based software, even for local stuff, will continue to gain favor and will *ALWAYS* be the least-common-demoninator, shiddy looking, poor-performing, standards-erratic compilation of crap that it is today - squared. Or more. I depise web-only applications, but even worse are web-only applications that use platform specific crap to build marginally usable GUIs. For an example, use Outlook Web Access via IE on Windows, then use it on *ANY* other browser. Good luck. And too many other, 3rd party sites are "This site was designed for IE version 6.xxx. If you're using another browser, click here to get the *right* one." That's total and utter shiddy sell-out, cop-out, mentality at work. Go team.