I want a bigger iPod Touch

[voice-]

I like how iPod Touch works. I really enjoy the interface, it is just so damn intuitive and simple. I want to hang it on my living room wall and use it to play music, but I want it with a bigger screen, something like 13". I want to throw a party and have all my friends being able to walk up to this screen and instantly know how to operate it.
The technology is there already, it's just a matter of scaling the screen now. How about it?

 

[#1 Rhapsody]

That would be nice if Apple made a kind of a tablet Mac (running Leopard). It would probably be quite expensive though

 

[ElDiabloConCaca]

Why would an Apple tablet be any more useful than any of the other tablets that have already been released?

I don't know about you guys, but I much prefer a mouse/trackpad and keyboard over having to manipulate things with my hands directly. On the iPod touch/iPhone, it's quite simple, because you rarely have to move your hand -- only your finger. On a tablet-style PC, you're required not only to move your fingers, but also your hand/wrist, and at times your entire arm. It's fatiguing to say the least.

I'm under the impression that "cool" does not automatically mean "useful."

 

[g/re/p]

I think there actually is a company that converts macbooks to tablets.

 

[Greg_Reez]

I once read sometime last year that a touchscreen tablet of sorts was in it's brainstorming stage. The tentative name was MacBook Nano. I have no idea where I had seen it, nor if it was a reputable source. But imagine an iPod Touch with a 7-8 inch screen, and just large enough to have a CD/DVD slot and a small speaker.

 

[ElDiabloConCaca]

No offense, but that's a yucky idea in my opinion. What good would it be for? What advantage would a touchscreen have over a keyboard?

While it may be "cool," Apple doesn't produce products that are cool simply for the cool factor. They produce useful products that have wide-ranging mass appeal -- and I just don't see that mass appeal with a "large iPod touch" or a "small MacBook with touchscreen."

 

[g/re/p]

I think there actually is a company that converts macbooks to tablets.

But i would not want one!

 

[lbj]

Dollars to donuts there will be a Mac netbook in time for the holiday season. The market is exploding and Apple is half-way there already with its Air. While I guess I would want a full blown OS on a miniature device, the idea of an iPhone and Apps like interface would be very appealing to me if it met a significant reduction in processor and memory requirements.

 

[ElDiabloConCaca]

Eh, I'm going to have to bet against you. The netbook market is unproven (and could hardly be described as "exploding") -- netbooks appeal to and sell the most to gear-heads and techies, which in the grand scheme of things, is an extremely small market segment. Apple just doesn't build hardware to market to niche segments.

While Apple may revolutionize the netbook category somewhere on down the line (like they did with the iPhone and iPod -- they weren't first by a long shot, just the best), I think less than 6 months is a tad overzealous in looking for an Apple-branded netbook (other than the current Air).

 

[lbj]

Unproven? How is a market "unproven" for a known, existing device that has sales?

Sure, the market for underwater helicopters is unproven, but certainly not for netbooks.

"...manufacturers shipped just 450,000 units globally in 2007, but 10 million units in 2008, according to the Consumer Electronics Assn. This year, netbook sales are expected to grow 80% to 18 million units."

hmmm, half a million to 18 million in two years...and during a global recession?

"According to Gartner and DisplaySearch, 5.6mn netbooks were sold in Q3 2008. To put things in perspective, 4.7mn iPhones were sold during that same period. 14mn netbooks were sold in all of 2008 and already netbooks account for 10% of the total PC market in Europe."

Just exactly what constitutes a proven and/or exploding market in your view?

 

[ElDiabloConCaca]

Well, since there have already been over 140 million computers sold and shipped just in the first half of 2009 alone, I would say that 18 million is most definitely a "niche" market.

By my estimates, in 2007, far over 20 million iPods were sold.

Not to mention that 18,000,000 is an estimate. We'll have to wait and see how close netbooks come to that mark. I'd be willing to bet they either don't make it or barely crest it.

I can say that in 2007 I sold 4 of something and in 2008 I sold 80 of that same something. Is that explosive growth? By percentages, yes -- by numbers, no.

 

[Greg_Reez]

I'm not exactly sure who this type of thing would appeal to. It's a big iPhone without the phone, and a small Macbook without the power. It kind of gets rid of everything that people want and need. I CAN imagine it being purchased by those who already have a powerful machine, and need a smaller supplement that they can carry to business meetings, classes, vacations, roadtrips, etc. And from time to time be able to sync it with their main computer. A tablet would hardly be worth it for anyone looking to us it as their main computer. But have tablets and miniature devices like this EVER seen success in the past?

 

[g/re/p]

http://eshop.macsales.com/shop/Modbook?gclid=COGF9My1t5sCFRAhDQodD1fnAA

 

[lbj]

… netbooks appeal to and sell the most to gear-heads and techies, which in the grand scheme of things, is an extremely small market segment.

All our beloved gear, Apple or otherwise, started out as “toys” for gear-heads and techies.

450k supplies the gear heads, 18 million represents penetration far beyond mere geeks.

Apple just doesn't build hardware to market to niche segments.

coughAppleTVcough

It’s estimated there are fewer than 500,000 ATVs ever sold, and yet for 2009, Jobs himself said it will continue as a “hobby”.

… I think less than 6 months is a tad overzealous in looking for an Apple-branded netbook (other than the current Air).

Not at all, they are already using all the hardware. All they need to do is source a smaller screen (which are everywhere), develop a decent small keyboard (ok, this is an Apple worthy challenge), and design a smaller-than-Air package. And they have been thinking and working on this for well more than 6 months now.

Well, since there have already been over 140 million computers sold and shipped just in the first half of 2009 alone, I would say that 18 million is most definitely a "niche" market.

6.5% is “niche”? Really?

Apple only very recently surpassed 6.5% of the computer market. Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes combined, let me repeat--combined, have less than 6.5% of the US car market. LG has less than 6.5% of the flat panel market.

Niche?

Not to mention that 18,000,000 is an estimate…I'd be willing to bet they either don't make it or barely crest it.

So it doesn't sound like 18 million is entirely unreasonable.

I can say that in 2007 I sold 4 of something and in 2008 I sold 80 of that same something. Is that explosive growth? By percentages, yes -- by numbers, no.

And this may be where we fundamentally disagree and will likely not find common ground. Both by percentage and actual number, the change is “explosive”. Or would you prefer “exponential”? Because netbooks are the only part of the computer market that is currently growing “exponentially”. Actually, it’s the only segment of the computer market that is growing at all.

Let me close by saying If anything I had, held, owned, sold, bartered, built, loaned, you-name-it, increased 40-fold in two years…then yes, I would call it explosive. I'm not trying to pick a fight, just feel strongly that Apple should, and will, enter this proven market in 2009.

 

[ElDiabloConCaca]

All our beloved gear, Apple or otherwise, started out as “toys” for gear-heads and techies.

Like MP3 players... smartphones... wireless routers... yet Apple was not the company that "started out" with these -- they waited and entered a mature market. They were not the first, just the best. Apple brings technology to the masses -- they don't come out with the first of a certain kind of product -- they take an existing, mature market, and revolutionize it.

coughAppleTVcough

It’s estimated there are fewer than 500,000 ATVs ever sold, and yet for 2009, Jobs himself said it will continue as a “hobby”.

My point exactly... Apple has admitted that the AppleTV is more of an experiment than anything. Still, it was marketed to the masses -- an easy way to bring your digital lifestyle (which just about everyone has one of those now) to the living room. Still: marketed to a large population, not a niche market.

Everyone watches TV -- not everyone wants something "more than a phone, but less than a laptop."

Not at all, they are already using all the hardware. All they need to do is source a smaller screen (which are everywhere), develop a decent small keyboard (ok, this is an Apple worthy challenge), and design a smaller-than-Air package. And they have been thinking and working on this for well more than 6 months now.

I'm not saying that the technology doesn't exist -- I'm just saying that I don't think the timing is right. I have no doubt in my mind that in some top-secret lab deep inside 1 Infinite Loop that there is a lot of testing and super-secret hardware that has something to do with a "netbook." Apple plays with a lot of different stuff -- very little of it actually makes it to market.

6.5% is “niche”? Really?

Apple only very recently surpassed 6.5% of the computer market. Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes combined, let me repeat--combined, have less than 6.5% of the US car market. LG has less than 6.5% of the flat panel market.

Niche?

Whoa -- I understand that statistics can be used to "bend the truth" somewhat, but now you're mixing two totally different statistics -- market share vs. whom a company markets to -- and you can't do that.

Do you think that because Apple only holds 6.5% of the market that their products and ad campaigns are only intended for 6.5% of the population's eyes? Apple may hold only 6.5% of the market, but they market (read: advertise and develop for) to a very broad range of the population -- much, much, much more than 6.5%.

The same with VW -- the Jetta is the ubiquitous and all-purpose sedan. Regular, ol' 4-door sedans have such broad appeal -- everyone from those just getting their license to elderly people are attracted to the Jetta. They market the Jetta to more than 50% of the population of developed countries. Just because only 3.276% of the people bought VW over Ford doesn't mean that the company is only "marketing to 3.276% of the population." They hold a small market share, yet market toward a much larger percentage of the population. Two, completely different kinds of percentages and statistics that cannot be interchanged freely.

Being a "niche brand" is something totally different than a "niche market."

So it doesn't sound like 18 million is entirely unreasonable.

No, not unreasonable at all. Many more flat-panel TVs were sold than that -- should Apple make TVs? Just because something sells well doesn't mean Apple should automatically jump on board with an Apple-branded version of it.

And this may be where we fundamentally disagree and will likely not find common ground. Both by percentage and actual number, the change is “explosive”. Or would you prefer “exponential”? Because netbooks are the only part of the computer market that is currently growing “exponentially”. Actually, it’s the only segment of the computer market that is growing at all.

Let me close by saying If anything I had, held, owned, sold, bartered, built, loaned, you-name-it, increased 40-fold in two years…then yes, I would call it explosive. I'm not trying to pick a fight, just feel strongly that Apple should, and will, enter this proven market in 2009.

No, no, I'm not picking a fight either -- just friendly debate and banter. Nothing personal meant, nothing personal taken. It's all good -- we're still friends!

I will agree with the many people who think an Apple-branded, optionally touchscreen "netbook" (whatever that comes out meaning) would be cool. But "cool" doesn't mean it will sell well, nor does "cool" mean it will have wide-range appeal. iPods have wide-range appeal -- toddlers to grandmothers are fascinated by them, can afford them, and can use them with relative ease. Laptop computers have wide-range appeal: students, mothers, businesspeople, travelers, etc. iPhones have wide-range appeal: you don't see soccer moms toting about their Acer-branded netbooks, but you'd be hard-pressed to find one without an iPod or iPhone.

I just don't think "netbooks" have the market penetration abilities that Apple seeks. They revolutionize entire segments of the technology sector by creating products that simplify the technology to a point where one doesn't need a degree to understand how to use them. They also produce products that everyone (and when I say, "everyone," I mean the 80% rule) wants -- everyone wants music-to-go. Everyone wants a cell phone. Everyone wants a laptop... desktop. The line is blurred when it comes to netbooks, though -- too underpowered to be a full-fledged computer, too large to tote in a purse -- it's just a product that's stuck in limbo in my mind... doesn't know what it wants to be. Doesn't have the impact that Apple's looking for. Doesn't have everyday useful traits -- it's just a smaller laptop without as many features and power.

If (and when) Apple makes their "netbook," I would be willing to bet my left nut that it doesn't resemble current netbooks in the sense of being a computer that folds in half, one half containing a screen, and the other half containing a keyboard. That's too... plain and done. I'm sure Apple will all teach us a lesson in the ease of use and the usefulness of a portable, tiny computer -- but not in the current form factor.

 

[lbj]

Ding, Ding, Ding ... Round 3

Like MP3 players... smartphones... wireless routers... yet Apple was not the company that "started out" with these -- they waited and entered a mature market. They were not the first, just the best. Apple brings technology to the masses -- they don't come out with the first of a certain kind of product -- they take an existing, mature market, and revolutionize it.

I personally don't feel they entered any of your examples when the market was mature. Developed? Yes. Proven? Yes. But not mature. And that is precisely why they were so successful on these fronts. No one had yet gotten them quite right...until Apple put the final tweaks in place. And nothing is "first" about a netbook so this doesn't break your paradigm.

My point exactly... Apple has admitted that the AppleTV is more of an experiment than anything. Still, it was marketed to the masses -- an easy way to bring your digital lifestyle (which just about everyone has one of those now) to the living room. Still: marketed to a large population, not a niche market.

I'm confused. Why would the MacNet not be marketed to a large population? I don't think Apple could build enough $650 MacNets <<provided>> they get the keyboard right. And notice I'm starting the MacNet at double the price of the "competition".

Everyone watches TV -- not everyone wants something "more than a phone, but less than a laptop."

Who wants less than a laptop? I just want a smaller one.

Whoa -- I understand that statistics can be used to "bend the truth" somewhat, but now you're mixing two totally different statistics -- market share vs. whom a company markets to -- and you can't do that.

Huh? Who brought up marketing share?? As a stockholder, I don't care about marketING share, I care about market share. Who is doing the mixing here? Apple didn't squirrel away 15 billion dollars cash by marketing. They did it by selling.

Do you think that because Apple only holds 6.5% of the market that their products and ad campaigns are only intended for 6.5% of the population's eyes? Apple may hold only 6.5% of the market, but they market (read: advertise and develop for) to a very broad range of the population -- much, much, much more than 6.5%.........Two, completely different kinds of percentages and statistics that cannot be interchanged freely.

So quit with the slight of hand already! (honestly said with respect) I never for one second inferred that Apple is only interested in, caters towards, develops for, or markets to only 6.5% of the market. My intent was to point out that while you are poo-pooing 18 million units or 6.5% of something as irrelevant or "niche", I'm trying to point out that those exact same sales represent the lifeblood of very mainstream products and very mainstream companies. Why do you have the idea that I think Apple should only market the MacNet to a very narrow spectrum? I think they should market it to the masses. And this may be a source of underlying disagreement; I feel the potential MacNet market is huge and growing...and you may not.

Being a "niche brand" is something totally different than a "niche market."

You missed my point entirely or I did a poor job of communicating. I'm not calling any of the companies a niche brand. And I don't feel any of their products are aimed squarely at a niche market. Just the opposite. They are mainstream. And I feel the netbook market has slipped outside the confines of niche.

No, not unreasonable at all. Many more flat-panel TVs were sold than that -- should Apple make TVs? Just because something sells well doesn't mean Apple should automatically jump on board with an Apple-branded version of it.

Um...ok...Let me try this another way: A netbook is a portable computer and Apple is in the business of portable computing. I'm not seeing the stretch you're implying...

I will agree with the many people who think an Apple-branded, optionally touchscreen "netbook" (whatever that comes out meaning) would be cool. But "cool" doesn't mean it will sell well, nor does "cool" mean it will have wide-range appeal. iPods have wide-range appeal -- toddlers to grandmothers are fascinated by them, can afford them, and can use them with relative ease. Laptop computers have wide-range appeal: students, mothers, businesspeople, travelers, etc. iPhones have wide-range appeal: you don't see soccer moms toting about their Acer-branded netbooks, but you'd be hard-pressed to find one without an iPod or iPhone.

I don't think I ever used the word "cool". Yes, iPods and iPhone are popular in a way that netbooks have yet to achieve. Maybe that's because Apple has yet to introduce one?

They revolutionize entire segments of the technology sector by creating products that simplify the technology to a point where one doesn't need a degree to understand how to use them.

I'm a huge fanboy. Have been since 1991. But I don't agree. Nothing revolutionary about the PowerMac, iMac, or MacBooks. Nothing revolutionary about the iPod. Absolute best in class? Yes! But until the iPhone, nothing else changed the entire playing field in a way that <<I>> would define as "revolutionary". (Ok, I will also grant iTunes Music Store and OSX as huge game changers). But the hardware?

...it's just a smaller laptop without as many features and power.

You just described the entire iPod line. I'm not asking for a brand spanking new concept, just a smaller version of what they already have. Mini-iMac-PowerMac. Shuffle-Nano-Classic-Touch. MacNet-MacBook-MacBook Pro.

If (and when) Apple makes their "netbook," I would be willing to bet my left nut that it doesn't resemble current netbooks in the sense of being a computer that folds in half, one half containing a screen, and the other half containing a keyboard. That's too... plain and done.

Why does it have to be so exotic? Yes, I get punch drunk looking at Apple's current products. And I love the way each of them look, feel, and operate. But past the rose colored glasses, all their products (again, iPhone is a rule breaker) have similar form factors to their competition.

I'm sure Apple will all teach us a lesson in the ease of use and the usefulness of a portable, tiny computer.

Agreed. And I think that lesson is sooner versus later and feel it will be more evolutionary than revolutionary. Especially to keep it in line with the current global economic climate. The time is right in more ways than one.

 

[ElDiabloConCaca]

I personally don't feel they entered any of your examples when the market was mature. Developed? Yes. Proven? Yes. But not mature. And that is precisely why they were so successful on these fronts. No one had yet gotten them quite right...until Apple put the final tweaks in place. And nothing is "first" about a netbook so this doesn't break your paradigm.

I wholeheartedly think that the MP3 player market was "mature." The Rio was doing very well, Creative Labs seemed like they couldn't make enough MP3 players, and competition was rampant. A large segment of the population knew about, owned, or planned to buy an MP3 player.

That's "mature" all the way. Developed and proven over time... what's more "mature" than that?

There wasn't anything wrong with the MP3 players on the market at all -- Apple just revolutionized and simplified them with great success.

I'm confused. Why would the MacNet not be marketed to a large population? I don't think Apple could build enough $650 MacNets <<provided>> they get the keyboard right. And notice I'm starting the MacNet at double the price of the "competition".

What I'm saying is that I don't think there's a market for the netbook -- at least, not as large a market as the iPhone, iPod, laptops and desktops. It's a "niche" product in the sense that a small segment of the population knows about or uses one, not that it comes from a "niche" brand like Apple (but Apple is slowly turning that "niche" image around with mainstream products with broad appeal).

I don't think that "large population" exists to market the netbook to.

Who wants less than a laptop? I just want a smaller one.

Again, I think that a netbook is a poor replacement for a laptop. A netbook isn't a "smaller laptop." It's a laptop with less power and less features. Uses far less powerful processors. Typically has less memory than other, full-size laptops. Does not include powerful graphics. Uses a lot of embedded (and slower) technology.

It's a technology that is stuck between a smartphone and a full-sized laptop. I have no doubt that Apple will come along and redefine what a netbook is -- just not by Christmas.

Huh? Who brought up marketing share??

I don't know what "marketing share" is, but you brought up market share. I made the initial point that Apple doesn't market (read: create products for and advertise to) to small segments of the population, and you replied with statistics about how much market share Apple, BMW and VW hold.

My point was that it matters not how big a slice of the market Apple currently holds -- my point was that they advertise their products to a large segment of the population. Even if we wanted to talk "market share," we could talk about the fact that Apple holds much more than 6.5% of the smartphone market and damn near all of the digital music market.

As a stockholder, I don't care about marketING share, I care about market share. Who is doing the mixing here? Apple didn't squirrel away 15 billion dollars cash by marketing. They did it by selling.

Apple's stock price fluctuates up and down independent of their market share. Their stock price was higher when they had less market share, and it's lower now that they have more market share. Having a bigger slice of the market has nothing to do with stock price. Look at Microsoft... IBM... Google...

Apple didn't squirrel away 15 billion dollars by selling -- that's a gross misunderstanding of how Apple was able to eliminate all their debt and put away billions in cash. It had to do with refining the pipeline that exists between the different channels involved in creating a computer -- the manufacturing of it, the shipping of it and how to eliminate stagnant stock sitting in warehouses (hint: it wasn't by selling the stagnant stock), etc.

Apple got rid of their debt long before their computers were flying off the shelves, and it had little-to-nothing to do with the volume of computers they sold.

Why do you have the idea that I think Apple should only market the MacNet to a very narrow spectrum?

I don't think you think that. I think that you think that the percentage of the population that is interested in a netbook is much higher than it is actually.

I think they should market it to the masses. And this may be a source of underlying disagreement; I feel the potential MacNet market is huge and growing...and you may not.

I think it's growing -- I just don't think it's as large as some think, nor do I think it has the money-making potential that the iPod market or iPhone market has.

I'm not saying it'll never be that way, I'm just saying we're not there yet. The market is small -- 18 million or not -- that's still small. Not to mention that the market needs to carry that growth -- you can't just have an 18-million-sales-year then have sales slump off... it has to be an ever-growing market (again, the iPod and iPhone). I think the netbook surge (if one can call it that) is a fad at this point. Soccer moms and grandmothers know damn well what an iPod and an iPhone are, and know that they're in demand. Try saying "netbook" to them, though, and more often than not, they won't know what it is nor will they have seen one.

How many regular Joes do you know with netbooks? I know none. I know a few nerds that have them -- perhaps a few geeks, too, and maybe even a dork or two. I think I saw some dude on campus with one once. The geeks of the world are a niche market, much like pregnant women -- there will always be some, but they'll never be the majority (which is what Apple designs and markets their consumer-level products for).

You missed my point entirely or I did a poor job of communicating. I'm not calling any of the companies a niche brand.

I am. BMW and Apple are currently niche brands with broad appeal. Apple is turning that around, but BMW will always be a niche brand as long as the poor outnumber the rich.

And I don't feel any of their products are aimed squarely at a niche market.

Neither do I, that's why I think the time is not right for an Apple netbook -- the netbook market is a niche market. Not a "market that is served by a niche brand," rather, a market that does not have the population to justify the broad, wide-range appeal of an Apple product.

And I feel the netbook market has slipped outside the confines of niche.

I don't feel that way. Netbooks are niche right now in my mind. Will they become mainstream someday? I think so. Right now? Nope.

Um...ok...Let me try this another way: A netbook is a portable computer and Apple is in the business of portable computing. I'm not seeing the stretch you're implying...

That's over-simplification. Apple has transformed a few times over the years, and they could better be described as being in the business of the "digital lifestyle" -- with products that interconnect and make sharing data and media amongst them easy. Some of that includes portable computing. A large part does not.

I don't think I ever used the word "cool". Yes, iPods and iPhone are popular in a way that netbooks have yet to achieve. Maybe that's because Apple has yet to introduce one?

My point exactly. Netbooks are "cool" -- I said that. They are. You can't deny it. My point was that just because something appears "cool" and appeals to a certain small segment of the population does not mean it has wide-range appeal.

I am positive that when Apple does some form of netbook, it will be both "cool" and have the broad appeal that the rest of their consumer-level products have.

I'm a huge fanboy. Have been since 1991. But I don't agree. Nothing revolutionary about the PowerMac, iMac, or MacBooks.

The PowerMac was the first computer to use a phenomenally more powerful processor (and a new type of processor). Pretty revolutionary for the time. All at a time when companies were touting "megahertz!" -- Apple came along and crushed that myth with a processor that was more efficient and faster than an Intel processor at a higher speed.

Revolutionary: when people were stuck thinking that speed was everything, Apple came along and taught them different.

The iMac revolutionized a lot of things: the all-in-one computer, the first computer geared toward getting you on the internet quickly, and the proliferation of the USB standard. Without the iMac, arguably, USB would not be where it is today.

Nothing revolutionary about the iPod.

Well, all except for that little thing about being able to manage a huge library of music in a decent fashion, as well as the input method that was copied again and again (the scrollwheel).

But until the iPhone, nothing else changed the entire playing field in a way that <<I>> would define as "revolutionary". (Ok, I will also grant iTunes Music Store and OSX as huge game changers). But the hardware?

You and I see Apple's products in different lights.

I see "evolutionary" as the natural progression of things -- if Apple doesn't do it, someone else eventually will.

I see "revolutionary" as someone/thing approaching an existing thing and improving on it in a way that no one else can -- I hope we can agree that the scrollwheel was genius, and it wasn't like there were a bunch of companies racing to get their scrollwheel out first. Apple did it and blindsided the industry, and everyone rushed to copy it because they were upset to know that it was something they would have never though of.

I think Apple is "revolutionary" with many of their products, and "evolutionary" as well. As a company, you'd have to be.

You just described the entire iPod line. I'm not asking for a brand spanking new concept, just a smaller version of what they already have. Mini, iMac, PowerMac. Shuffle, Nano, Classic, Touch. MacNet, MacBook, MacBook Pro.

I know you're asking for it... the question is, is everyone else asking for it as well? They are not. A small percentage of the population is, but not a market big enough for Apple to enter into at this point.

Why does it have to be so exotic? Yes, I get punch drunk looking at Apple's current products. And I love the way each of them look, feel, and operate. But past the rose colored glasses, all their products (again, iPhone is a rule breaker) have similar form factors to their competition.

Apple is not just hardware. Not just software. It's the integration of the two. The iPhone is a beautiful piece of equipment where the software and hardware blend together perfectly. So is the range of iPods.

Go use a Zune for a day. Or a Sony walkman MP3 player. Tell me that the hardware is the "same" as an iPod. Tell me the software works as well as the iPod software. Sure, the hardware is all metal, plastic and glass, just like any other, and the software is all bits and bytes not unlike any other software, but it goes beyond that.

It's not that they use exotic materials, or funky shapes, or even software that is proprietary. It's the way they can integrate it all with elegance and intelligence, and bring what was once cumbersome and clunky to an elegant level that the majority of the population can understand, use, and be productive with.

Agreed. And I think that lesson is sooner versus later and feel it will be more evolutionary and revolutionary. Especially to keep it in line with the current global economic climate. The time is right in more ways than one.

Then we disagree. I think you're wishing for the moon if you want to see a $650 Apple-branded "netbook" before the end of the year. The current iPhone costs close to that. The Mac mini costs close to that.

We all know damn well that Apple's netbook will not be priced at $650 -- not at this point in time.

 

[lbj]

I wholeheartedly think that the MP3 player market was "mature." The Rio was doing very well, Creative Labs seemed like they couldn't make enough MP3 players, and competition was rampant. A large segment of the population knew about, owned, or planned to buy an MP3 player.

I disagree. Just like what you argue now, at the time of the initial iPod introduction I had a total of 1 friend with an mp3 player. I did not, and did not want one. And my mom, grandma, sister, and pregnant neighbor were pretty much clueless.

Apple just revolutionized and simplified them with great success.

Concur wholeheartedly.

Again, I think that a netbook is a poor replacement for a laptop. A netbook isn't a "smaller laptop." It's a laptop with less power and less features. Uses far less powerful processors. Typically has less memory than other, full-size laptops. Does not include powerful graphics. Uses a lot of embedded (and slower) technology.

And for huge swaths of the population, that is all that is needed. Browser, email, ability to do "Office" like work. No one admits it, but that is all that most need. And actually, it's all that most use. So while the geeks, nerds, and techs will all bash performance, the masses (me included) will be very satisfied with what the MacNet does and how it does it.

Apple's stock price fluctuates up and down independent of their market share.

Short term, sure. Long term, nope. Provided share allocation isn't thrown in the thrasher, stock price is based on perceived value of the company in aggregate divided by the number of shares. If you keep your margin fixed or improving, the more you sell, the more you make. And the more you make, the more you are worth. And the more you are worth will increase the value of your stock. Short term speculation, under-realization of potential, overly optimistic future projection, calamity, lawsuits, etc will all affect this perceived value in the short term. But long term will always tell the truth. Bubbles don't last, ever. Not in sectors. Not in companies. Not in products. And not in soap suds.

Their stock price was higher when they had less market share, and it's lower now that they have more market share.

You are looking short term. Perception of value always skews the short term. It overinflated the price before and it is undervaluing it now.

Having a bigger slice of the market has nothing to do with stock price. Look at Microsoft... IBM... Google...

I will let you plot out at your convenience each of those companies stock price in relation to market share over the years (again, LONG TERM). Be sure to adjust for stock splits. No need to report back, I know what you will find.

Apple didn't squirrel away 15 billion dollars by selling -- that's a gross misunderstanding of how Apple was able to eliminate all their debt and put away billions in cash.

No it's not. It's a gross misunderstanding to think Apple payed back debt without cash flow.

It had to do with refining the pipeline that exists between the different channels involved in creating a computer -- the manufacturing of it, the shipping of it and how to eliminate stagnant stock sitting in warehouses (hint: it wasn't by selling the stagnant stock), etc.

You can have the most efficient product pipeline in the world. Let's say one that involved zero costs. Resources were free, energy free, workers free, R&D free...you get the idea. You will still not make one penny if you can't/don't sell what comes out the other end. And without making that penny, you cannot pay down your debt let alone build up cash. Efficiency is awesome, but meaningless without sales.

Apple got rid of their debt long before their computers were flying off the shelves, and it had little-to-nothing to do with the volume of computers they sold.

It had everything to do with the number of computers sold times the profit margin built into each unit. Period. Dot.

I don't think you think that. I think that you think that the percentage of the population that is interested in a netbook is much higher than it is actually.

And that truly is the core of our disagreement.

Soccer moms and grandmothers know damn well what an iPod and an iPhone are, and know that they're in demand. Try saying "netbook" to them, though, and more often than not, they won't know what it is nor will they have seen one.

But I can tell you from personal experience, when they do see mine, I get non-stop questions and admiration. And as a personal aside, two friends, both recently delivered first child, both immediately got netbooks to replace older, clunkier laptops to carry about in the stroller. Sure, n=2, statistically worthless but I bring it up just the same. And as mentioned, when the iPod first came out I was surrounded in a sea of ignorance and/or indifference.

I am positive that when Apple does some form of netbook, it will be both "cool" and have the broad appeal that the rest of their consumer-level products have.

Agree wholeheartedly. Why can't that be now?

The PowerMac was the first computer to use a phenomenally more powerful processor (and a new type of processor). Pretty revolutionary for the time. All at a time when companies were touting "megahertz!" -- Apple came along and crushed that myth with a processor that was more efficient and faster than an Intel processor at a higher speed.

Revolutionary: when people were stuck thinking that speed was everything, Apple came along and taught them different.

Crushed that myth amongst the nerds. The masses still think hertz rules. And megapixels--but that’s a different story for a different day.

The iMac revolutionized a lot of things: the all-in-one computer, the first computer geared toward getting you on the internet quickly, and the proliferation of the USB standard.

No all in one before the iMac? From anyone, not even Apple? No revolution, sorry. The first "cute" computer? Yes. They won that hands down. And I don't mean that derisively, it caused the masses to take notice and take a closer look.

I see "revolutionary" as someone/thing approaching an existing thing and improving on it in a way that no one else can -- I hope we can agree that the scrollwheel was genius, and it wasn't like there were a bunch of companies racing to get their scrollwheel out first. Apple did it and blindsided the industry, and everyone rushed to copy it because they were upset to know that it was something they would have never though of.

Yes. I hand that one to you. The scrollwheel was huge--I was wrong to neglect it.

Apple is not just hardware. Not just software. It's the integration of the two. The iPhone is a beautiful piece of equipment where the software and hardware blend together perfectly. So is the range of iPods.

Agree. Agree. Agree. A slick MacNet with the same OS we know and love would hold the same beauty currently felt/experienced in the MacBook or Pro.

Go use a Zune for a day. Or a Sony walkman MP3 player. Tell me that the hardware is the "same" as an iPod. Tell me the software works as well as the iPod software. Sure, the hardware is all metal, plastic and glass, just like any other, and the software is all bits and bytes not unlike any other software, but it goes beyond that.

It's not that they use exotic materials, or funky shapes, or even software that is proprietary. It's the way they can integrate it all with elegance and intelligence, and bring what was once cumbersome and clunky to an elegant level that the majority of the population can understand, use, and be productive with.

Believe it or not, I concur. The overall experience (hardware AND software integration) is revolutionary. The physical product, while seemingly always beautiful, is generally not revolutionary in the physical sense.

Then we disagree. I think you're wishing for the moon if you want to see a $650 Apple-branded "netbook" before the end of the year. The current iPhone costs close to that. The Mac mini costs close to that.

Yes. This is where my desire/argument will fail. Not that there isn't a netbook coming by year's end, but that it will be so expensive (ala Cube or Air) that folks will shrug and walk away.

 

[ElDiabloConCaca]

If we keep quoting each other, no one else will read this. I'll reply more selectively now, but concur that over the long term, stock price tends to go up as a company gains market share -- but will not concur that market share is the main influence in a stock price's upward movement... a company can both gain market share while stock prices go down. They are not "linked at the hip."

And I do think that MP3 players were more common than netbooks are now, comparatively. MP3 players were a natural transition from tape players and CD players (tapes -> CDs -> MP3 CDs -> MP3 players), and the market had matured enough and very well-known outside of the "geek" circle. So much so that they were encroaching on "mainstream."

I will let you plot out at your convenience each of those companies stock price in relation to market share over the years (again, LONG TERM). Be sure to adjust for stock splits. No need to report back, I know what you will find.

I found that each of these companies' stock increased as the level of carbon monoxide in our atmosphere increased. Coincidence?

I also found Microsoft's stock increased in price steadily, as did Apple's, much of the time coinciding. Does that mean that both were gaining market share at the same time, somehow pushing the maximum past 100%?

I'll agree that market share does good for a company's stock, but that's how it happens and is not a set-in-stone rule. Downsizing, specializing and segmenting also can drive the perceived stock value up. Just because a company's stock goes up does not mean that the company must be gaining market share -- and, just because a company is gaining market share does not mean that the stock price will magically go up.

I'll concur that perceived value can drive stock worth skyward, but there are many ways that a company can perform in order to increase that perceived value... one of which is expanding.

No it's not. It's a gross misunderstanding to think Apple payed back debt without cash flow. You can have the most efficient product pipeline in the world. Let's say one that involved zero costs. Resources were free, energy free, workers free, R&D free...you get the idea. You will still not make one penny if you can't/don't sell what comes out the other end. And without making that penny, you cannot pay down your debt let alone build up cash. Efficiency is awesome, but meaningless without sales.

You don't have to have magnificent sales in order to pay down debt. Apple didn't have magnificent sales until their debt was already being paid down -- from $1 billion in the mid-90s to under $300 million in 2004.

Yes, sales are required, but not exponential growth. If Apple would have continued with Gil Amelio's convoluted computer lineup and the excess of stock in the warehouses, only an unachievable amount of sales would have saved Apple.

Answering, "How did Apple become debt-free?" with, "They sold more computers," is looking only at the tip of the iceberg. The sales were the end result of everything before it. Apple could have kept their sales exactly constant, while doing everything else (making the assembly/delivery/sales pipeline much, much, much more efficient, in turn reducing the backlog of stock) and still paid off their debt. Efficient pipelines make for more profit, and more profit allows you to pay off debt. Again, I think it's a stretch to entangle the concept of higher numbers of sales with paying off debt.

But I can tell you from personal experience, when they do see mine, I get non-stop questions and admiration. And as a personal aside, two friends, both recently delivered first child, both immediately got netbooks to replace older, clunkier laptops to carry about in the stroller. Sure, n=2, statistically worthless but I bring it up just the same.

I'll give you that, but not everything that everyone is interested in is going to sell. Interest drums up publicity, but publicity does not correlate to sales. It has to be a product that appeals to people not only for the "ooh, look, what's that? Interesting! Tell me about it!" factor, but for the, "wow, I need one of those," factor. I don't see that with netbooks. I see the "golly, gee, that's cool! What is it?" but I don't see the, "wow, I should totally get a smaller laptop because it is a better fit for my needs," a whole lot.

And as mentioned, when the iPod first came out I was surrounded in a sea of ignorance and/or indifference.

It didn't take long for it to catch on -- as soon as word got out, it was a hit. Everyone likes music. If you ask 100 people, "What is your favorite kind of music?" you will probably get 0 responses of, "I don't like music." The iPod just reinforced people's love of music and made it easy to take tons of it on the go.

I don't see that kind of thing happening with netbooks -- what do people need on-the-go that a laptop or an iPhone don't already satisfy? Would it be possible to simply improve on the iPhone or laptop instead of adding another category to the product lineup that does exactly what the iPhone and the laptop already do?

Agree wholeheartedly. Why can't that be now?

I thought we went over this... market's not right... hehe...

Crushed that myth amongst the nerds. The masses still think hertz rules. And megapixels--but that’s a different story for a different day.

...but Apple got them to question the myth, and people's minds opened up to that "computer they were always interested in but too scared to make the leap." The Intel-burning commercials, remember? It was revolutionary technology that tackled a myth head-on, with some degree of success. If anything, it made people more critical of the megahertz myth.

No all in one before the iMac? From anyone, not even Apple?

Huh? I never said, nor did I ever even imply that the iMac was the very first all-in-one computer. Please don't put words in my mouth. I said that the iMac revolutionized the all-in-one concept. I said, "first computer designed to get you on the internet quickly." And my entire argument from the onset of this was that Apple is rarely, if ever, the "first" to market with a new product -- they're all about entering an already mature market and improving on what they see as shortcomings of existing products, and a lot of the time, revolutionizing the way people view and what they expect out of those products.

Agree. Agree. Agree. A slick MacNet with the same OS we know and love would hold the same beauty currently felt/experienced in the MacBook or Pro.

...so if it delivers nothing more than a MacBook or MacBook Pro, it's just smaller, where does that fit in with the current product lineup?

Again, hey, that would be cool and I'd love to have one. Obviously, you would too. I just don't think there are enough people like us to justify that kind of endeavor for Apple within the next 6 months. Sure, we can find thousands of people in tech forums and Apple fan-boy sites to think that there are enough out there, but that's a skewed representation of the actual population and whom Apple markets to.

Believe it or not, I concur. The overall experience (hardware AND software integration) is revolutionary. The physical product, while seemingly always beautiful, is generally not revolutionary in the physical sense.

Agreed -- the use of plastic and/or metal is what computer cases are built from, both from cheap-o knock off computer companies and Apple themselves. It's how they use it that is revolutionary. A pencil can be used by a grade-schooler and it can also be used by Michelangelo.

Yes. This is where my desire/argument will fail. Not that there isn't a netbook coming by year's end, but that it will be so expensive (ala Cube or Air) that folks will shrug and walk away.

Well, you know that whatever the price is, it will probably be worth it, and both you and I will go into severe debt and/or put ourselves in harm's way to get our hands on one.

 

[lbj]

I think you win because you have me now going on the defense.

As for anyone else reading this, I hope to God they have better things to do right now. Go hug your sig other. Play with your kids. Enjoy the sunset. Trap a firefly. Anything but keep up with this endless tripe.

I will follow your lead and skip with the quotes. My comments will roughly follow the flow of yours so it should be easy to follow along for anyone who is crazy enough to keep up.

I never said "market share is the main influence in a stock price's upward movement". Why do you keep saying that I said that? It is a factor. An important factor. Not the only factor. Never said otherwise.
Once again, number of units sold by margin per unit. Period. You can tweak that equation on either side, volume or margin, or both, but both sides (volume and margin) will determine profitability. You can't ignore either factor. Well...I guess you could...but as a Company you would be stupid to ignore either volume or margin.

I never said "linked at the hip".

I never implied, again, that it is just market share (and market share alone) causing stock price to go up. In fact, I went out of my way to mention margin per unit plus perception. Please don't oversimplify my comments.

I never said "set-in-stone" rule

I never said that increasing stock price means the company must be gaining market share

Also never implied that gaining market share means stock price will magically go up. And never used the word "magically".

I never said "magnificent sales" were needed to drive down debt.

I never said exponential growth is required either.

And what the heck is up with this line: "Answering, "How did Apple become debt-free?" with, "They sold more computers," is looking only at the tip of the iceberg."
That was never my argument OR my statement. I never brought debt into this. Although I'm not afraid to talk debt, this line is a classic example on how my admittedly simplified points are exaggerated, out of proportion, in an attempt to aid your arguments. I never argued about debt originally and never said volume was the sole road to financial Nirvana. You can sell all you want, but if your cost per unit outstrips your income per unit, you are screwed.

And actually, the scenario you lay out...basically, same volume sales, but with drastically increased margins (via increased efficiencies) is precisely how they paid down their 80's and 90's debt. Why are we arguing what we both believe to be true??

What do people need that is already not satisfied? A bigger iPhone or smaller laptop is the overly simple answer.

Can you improve either sufficiently? Well, you don't want the iPhone bigger (for a "real" keyboard and larger screen) and if you make the laptop smaller.....well damn, you are doing exactly what I want and expect.

Nice try but neither existing product fills the in-between step--unless you shrink the size of the MacBook. And while you are at it, shrink the overall processing power and energy consumption for longer battery life. Bonus points if it will fit in my wife's purse or in my zippered portfolio. Extra bonus points if it will run more or less a full day on a single charge. You know, so we don't have to carry around an extra computer bag or oversize "back pack" in our business attire. Something with full "Office" like capability and full mail and internet but able to toss into whatever hand held "article" we are carrying (purse, briefcase, portfolio) or wearing? Cargo pocket anyone?

How did they "revolutionize" the all in one concept? They had one, actually several, well before the iMac. So did Compac and I'm sure others. How did they revolutionize it other than make it "cute" and add colored plastic?
No. I'm serious. Answer the question. How was it revolutionary?

Don't get me wrong. It was a brilliant, bold concept. But not a revolution. Unless you consider orange a revolution.

Here we are again, you talking "first to market". Nothing first about a netbook. Every other player has them. I don't use that as justification why Apple should be in the fray, just to remind you they wouldn't be first.

You don't see the market? I sure hope Apple does.

The market is right. Now more than ever.