I typically don't have time to devote to these discussions, but I must admit that I'm a little disappointed with the present state of the situation.
(1) Although Iran has potential for democratic reform, the moderate (reform) majority totally blew the last election by fragmenting itself across parties.
(2) The present government in Iran is seeking nuclear weapons and knows that its time is limited because (hopefully) the next round of elections will see a the reformers taking control.
(3) The US is preoccupied with Iraq, Afghanistan, and others. (By the way it is not impossible that the US was given bad information about Iraq from Iranian agents -- if so it was an excellent plan.)
(4) The EU is not handling the negotiations well. Europe's refusal to build a continental army leaves them dependent on the US military for enforcement of UN sanctions.
(5) The possibility of a useful security council resolution seems slim -- Russia has a vested interest in making this situation drag out.
I have no idea what is going to come from all of this, but it doesn't look good. Once Pakistan tested it's nuclear weapons it was apparent that the clock was ticking on the spread of these throughout the middle east. The combined policies of the US and EU has done nothing to democratize this region. Both have vested time and money into supporting dictatorship and monarchies rather than honest democratic movements. The first attempt to destabilize these was the war in Afghanistan, but this was so late in the game -- of course this is easy to say now since we don't worry about the Stalinists as we once did.
For as much as many HATE the Bush government, we've come to a point that the only hope is that the new Iraq and Afghanistan grow in strength and security and that there is a domino effect.
