ApeInTheShell - I think you're very wrong (about some parts)
People will hate the interface (or pieces of it). For instance, there's no logical reason (beyond aesthetics) for the window close/minimise/restore widgets to be so thin (and thus hard to click). There's no good reason for the windows to be translucent in Windows either, since so much of the time is spent with the windows maximised, all you get is confusion behind the toolbars.
The inconsistency is horrific. And it's bad in Tiger too (just look at Mail, or the way Spotlight works).
So yeah, you were right about that. But it won't deter many people (if any). People just use their PCs (they learn how to do things, even if they're awkward) because they're told they're easy to use. They see kids using them. They won't use XP because Microsoft (and their kids) will tell them that Vista has whopping great big new features and using Windows XP then is like using Windows 95 now. And most people don't even realise that there are other OSes (even on Macs).
It's unlikely that a bad interface will spark much of a change in the general populous. I mean, just look at Internet Explorer (for Windows).