Mikuro
Crotchety UI Nitpicker
The Macworld keynote's announcements (and lack thereof) make me fear for the future of the Mac. At this point, I actually feel like Apple is phasing out the Mac OS.
PC journalists have been saying it since the 90s, and I've always just ignored them, simply assuming that they regularly enjoyed certain hallucinogenic substances. But at this point, I can't shake the feeling that the Mac OS is on its way out. The only difference is that unlike the pundits of the past, I don't think that the Mac OS will finally be killed by the market or by Microsoft or by the public's realization that Windows is better (ha!); I think it will be killed by Apple.
The signs have been coming for years, but I always felt like Apple was just "stretching", and that the heart and soul of the company would always be the Macintosh. Now I'm thinking "Apple's a business, and businesses don't even have hearts or souls." That much seems obvious.
A Macworld keynote with zero news about Macs seems like a dark sign to me. With the expected push into the phone and movie markets, I had hoped Apple would take this opportunity to reinforce the importance and relevance of the Mac. Instead, they ignored it completely. That makes it look like Apple doesn't really care, and the Mac is getting less and less important to them.
Let's look at the signs of the Mac's diminishing importance, and the excuses/explanations/mantras the Mac faithful (myself included) made when they first appeared:
1. Apple releases the iPod.
"There were no good mp3 players for Macs, so Apple made one. Apple's made peripherals before. It's a natural extension of their Mac business. *yawn*"
2. Apple adds Windows support to the iPod.
"Well, it only makes sense. As long as Mac support doesn't suffer, who cares? Besides, Windows users are still second-class citizens with their MusicMatch. It's a natural extension of their iPod business."
3. Apple makes iTunes for Windows.
"It'll give Windows users a little taste of the Mac. No harm there! It's just a natural extension of the iPod business. Apple doesn't want Windows users to feel like second-class citizens, they want them to love the iPod experience."
4. Apple launches the iTunes store. At this point, the iPod was undeniably a HUGE part of Apple and their future, and arguably a bigger part than the Mac OS.
"Music player, music delivery. It's just another natural extension. Apple is leading the way yet again!"
5. Apple announced the switch to Intel.
"It doesn't matter what chip is inside as long as it runs the Mac OS. z0mg ibm is lamezorz and nevar got to 3GHz!!1! Just because they use Intel chips doesn't mean they'll be 'PCs'."
6. Apple releases Intel Macs, and they are indeed just 'PCs'. As proof, Apple releases Boot Camp to allow Macs to run Windows normally (kind of an oxymoron, isn't it?).
"It just adds value to the hardware. Why NOT give people the option? Windows users might buy Macs now and stick with OS X after they use it."
7. Apple releases the AppleTV and iPhone at a Mac show (no, THE Mac show), with no Mac-related news at all. They even drop the word "Computer" from their corporate identity and the word "Mac" from the name of OS X (in regard to the iPhone's OS, at least).
"Just another natural extension! Natural extension, I say! That Mikuro guy is such an idiot. Shyeesh."
Now go from #1 straight to #7. They've turned from "The Mac People" to a phone and media delivery company. That doesn't seem so natural. In the 90s, could anyone have expected Apple's biggest news at Macworld to be a freakin' phone?! No way.
I could have gone further back with the signs, all the way back to the purchase of NeXT, the return of Jobs, and the birth of OS X. It ties in if you want to look at it that way, but it takes more stretching, so I left it at the iPod.
And now, let me propose some more likely "natural extensions" for Apple over the next few years:
8. Apple releases Safari for Windows.
"Anything that wrests control away from IE is a good thing for Mac users. Safari is much more attractive to your average Joe than Firefox."
9. Apple releases Cocoa for Windows. Now making cross-platform apps is just as simple as making a universal binary. This is how they got Safari working so easily.
"Great! Now developers can write world-class programs that will run great on the Mac OS AND Windows! One less reason for companies to make Windows-only software."
10. Apple offers a BTO option to have new Macs ship with both OS X and Windows pre-installed.
"Some people do need Windows. They shouldn't need to pay the exorbitant retail price. This makes Macs more competitive. It'll help Apple push into the corporate world."
11. Apple releases iLife for Windows.
"As long as it turns a profit, why not? Remember, Mac users get this stuff for FREE. It'll make for a great 'halo effect'. It's a good example of the cross-platform power of Cocoa."
12. Apple starts offering "Macs" preinstalled with only Windows (and perhaps iLife) in major channels. Hardware sales soar.
"This makes Apple truly competitive with the rest of the market. A lot of Windows users like Apple's hardware as much as Mac users, so why shouldn't Apple take their money?"
And unlucky #13:
13. Apple announces the discontinuation of the Mac OS. Most Mac developers are already making "obese" binaries that run on OS X and Windows anyway, so Mac users will be able to use most of their favorite Mac apps (including all of Apple's) on Windows. Other developers will have enough of a heads-up to adapt their Mac apps to run on Windows. The sales of Windows-only "Macs" are big enough to sustain Apple' hardware division, and the Mac OS is simply no longer needed to sell the hardware.
"Well....uhh...The spirit of the Mac will live on! It was only natural. Apple makes luxury hardware and easy-to-use software. They don't need their own OS to do that. Yeah. The Mac OS is so 2000. It's time for the Next Big Thing! Apple realized that; they really have vision! The Mac OS didn't really fit with the Apple brand, anyway. They're a media and hardware company first and foremost."
And there ya go. Apple has transitioned to Windows as smoothly as anyone could have imagined. They still call their luxury PCs "Macs".
Basically, the Mac OS has always sold Apple's hardware. Back in the mid-to-late 90s, nobody in their right mind would buy a Mac if they didn't want the Mac OS. Everything Apple did was tied to the Mac OS without it, the company would have had nothing and would have died instantly. As long as Apple was on the PPC, this was still largely the case (maybe they COULD have survived on iPods, but their computer division was still reliant on the Mac OS and turned a great profit). Apple's transition to Intel goes a long way towards uncoupling their hardware business from the Mac OS, and as we all know the hardware is where they make their big profits. OS X has been vital in getting Apple to the position they're in today, making great hardware that everyone drools over. But soon that hardware will be able to stand on its own in the Windows world. Once that happens, and Apple no longer needs the Mac OS to sell hardware, they can easily dispose of it without even hurting the bottom line in fact, it might be hard to justify supporting it, since a lot of money goes into OS X, and it's the hardware revenue that funds that. Once the hardware is self-sufficient, so to speak, the Mac OS will have fulfilled its ultimate purpose, business-wise.
Let me ask you this: if Apple were planning this move to Windows as I've outlined, is there anything you can point to in the past few years that they would have done differently? I don't think so. All their actions have been timed perfectly for such a transition. That's what scares me.
Tell me why I'm crazy. I'd love to be convinced.
PC journalists have been saying it since the 90s, and I've always just ignored them, simply assuming that they regularly enjoyed certain hallucinogenic substances. But at this point, I can't shake the feeling that the Mac OS is on its way out. The only difference is that unlike the pundits of the past, I don't think that the Mac OS will finally be killed by the market or by Microsoft or by the public's realization that Windows is better (ha!); I think it will be killed by Apple.
The signs have been coming for years, but I always felt like Apple was just "stretching", and that the heart and soul of the company would always be the Macintosh. Now I'm thinking "Apple's a business, and businesses don't even have hearts or souls." That much seems obvious.
A Macworld keynote with zero news about Macs seems like a dark sign to me. With the expected push into the phone and movie markets, I had hoped Apple would take this opportunity to reinforce the importance and relevance of the Mac. Instead, they ignored it completely. That makes it look like Apple doesn't really care, and the Mac is getting less and less important to them.
Let's look at the signs of the Mac's diminishing importance, and the excuses/explanations/mantras the Mac faithful (myself included) made when they first appeared:
1. Apple releases the iPod.
"There were no good mp3 players for Macs, so Apple made one. Apple's made peripherals before. It's a natural extension of their Mac business. *yawn*"
2. Apple adds Windows support to the iPod.
"Well, it only makes sense. As long as Mac support doesn't suffer, who cares? Besides, Windows users are still second-class citizens with their MusicMatch. It's a natural extension of their iPod business."
3. Apple makes iTunes for Windows.
"It'll give Windows users a little taste of the Mac. No harm there! It's just a natural extension of the iPod business. Apple doesn't want Windows users to feel like second-class citizens, they want them to love the iPod experience."
4. Apple launches the iTunes store. At this point, the iPod was undeniably a HUGE part of Apple and their future, and arguably a bigger part than the Mac OS.
"Music player, music delivery. It's just another natural extension. Apple is leading the way yet again!"
5. Apple announced the switch to Intel.
"It doesn't matter what chip is inside as long as it runs the Mac OS. z0mg ibm is lamezorz and nevar got to 3GHz!!1! Just because they use Intel chips doesn't mean they'll be 'PCs'."
6. Apple releases Intel Macs, and they are indeed just 'PCs'. As proof, Apple releases Boot Camp to allow Macs to run Windows normally (kind of an oxymoron, isn't it?).
"It just adds value to the hardware. Why NOT give people the option? Windows users might buy Macs now and stick with OS X after they use it."
7. Apple releases the AppleTV and iPhone at a Mac show (no, THE Mac show), with no Mac-related news at all. They even drop the word "Computer" from their corporate identity and the word "Mac" from the name of OS X (in regard to the iPhone's OS, at least).
"Just another natural extension! Natural extension, I say! That Mikuro guy is such an idiot. Shyeesh."
Now go from #1 straight to #7. They've turned from "The Mac People" to a phone and media delivery company. That doesn't seem so natural. In the 90s, could anyone have expected Apple's biggest news at Macworld to be a freakin' phone?! No way.
I could have gone further back with the signs, all the way back to the purchase of NeXT, the return of Jobs, and the birth of OS X. It ties in if you want to look at it that way, but it takes more stretching, so I left it at the iPod.
And now, let me propose some more likely "natural extensions" for Apple over the next few years:
8. Apple releases Safari for Windows.
"Anything that wrests control away from IE is a good thing for Mac users. Safari is much more attractive to your average Joe than Firefox."
9. Apple releases Cocoa for Windows. Now making cross-platform apps is just as simple as making a universal binary. This is how they got Safari working so easily.
"Great! Now developers can write world-class programs that will run great on the Mac OS AND Windows! One less reason for companies to make Windows-only software."
10. Apple offers a BTO option to have new Macs ship with both OS X and Windows pre-installed.
"Some people do need Windows. They shouldn't need to pay the exorbitant retail price. This makes Macs more competitive. It'll help Apple push into the corporate world."
11. Apple releases iLife for Windows.
"As long as it turns a profit, why not? Remember, Mac users get this stuff for FREE. It'll make for a great 'halo effect'. It's a good example of the cross-platform power of Cocoa."
12. Apple starts offering "Macs" preinstalled with only Windows (and perhaps iLife) in major channels. Hardware sales soar.
"This makes Apple truly competitive with the rest of the market. A lot of Windows users like Apple's hardware as much as Mac users, so why shouldn't Apple take their money?"
And unlucky #13:
13. Apple announces the discontinuation of the Mac OS. Most Mac developers are already making "obese" binaries that run on OS X and Windows anyway, so Mac users will be able to use most of their favorite Mac apps (including all of Apple's) on Windows. Other developers will have enough of a heads-up to adapt their Mac apps to run on Windows. The sales of Windows-only "Macs" are big enough to sustain Apple' hardware division, and the Mac OS is simply no longer needed to sell the hardware.
"Well....uhh...The spirit of the Mac will live on! It was only natural. Apple makes luxury hardware and easy-to-use software. They don't need their own OS to do that. Yeah. The Mac OS is so 2000. It's time for the Next Big Thing! Apple realized that; they really have vision! The Mac OS didn't really fit with the Apple brand, anyway. They're a media and hardware company first and foremost."
And there ya go. Apple has transitioned to Windows as smoothly as anyone could have imagined. They still call their luxury PCs "Macs".
Basically, the Mac OS has always sold Apple's hardware. Back in the mid-to-late 90s, nobody in their right mind would buy a Mac if they didn't want the Mac OS. Everything Apple did was tied to the Mac OS without it, the company would have had nothing and would have died instantly. As long as Apple was on the PPC, this was still largely the case (maybe they COULD have survived on iPods, but their computer division was still reliant on the Mac OS and turned a great profit). Apple's transition to Intel goes a long way towards uncoupling their hardware business from the Mac OS, and as we all know the hardware is where they make their big profits. OS X has been vital in getting Apple to the position they're in today, making great hardware that everyone drools over. But soon that hardware will be able to stand on its own in the Windows world. Once that happens, and Apple no longer needs the Mac OS to sell hardware, they can easily dispose of it without even hurting the bottom line in fact, it might be hard to justify supporting it, since a lot of money goes into OS X, and it's the hardware revenue that funds that. Once the hardware is self-sufficient, so to speak, the Mac OS will have fulfilled its ultimate purpose, business-wise.
Let me ask you this: if Apple were planning this move to Windows as I've outlined, is there anything you can point to in the past few years that they would have done differently? I don't think so. All their actions have been timed perfectly for such a transition. That's what scares me.
Tell me why I'm crazy. I'd love to be convinced.