Well, I have to say this: MacOS X is very good about keeping resources off disk until it has to use VM. I have a 352MB setup, with Classic running, a few large apps running, etc. and it says that I am not using any VM space. So if you are worried about VM entering the scene, get at least 382MB, 512MB is best (balance of cost and efficiency) for gaming/etc.
RAM is cheap, cheaper than the 128MB FPM DIMMs I put into my 8600/300.