The reason that it was about 500 megs is because they are disk images, not patches. Anyway, as far as the dl or not to dl business goes, i think apple will put it on their servers, even if it does come out to be 100 megs. Everyone remember the 9.1 procedure?
If not, go here:
http://www.info.apple.com/support/macos9/9.1download.html
I believe that OS X 10.1 will provide the same 3 options that OS 9.1 provided:
1.Multiple part dl: they did it for the 70+ megs in 9.1, why can't they do it for 10.1?)
2. Complete download: this will be offered shortly after the release of 10.1, just like 9.1 did
3. CD order, this: just like in 9.1 will be somthing that you will and should have to pay for.
I just dont see where all of the speculation comes in, Apple has a set procedure for these types of releases. Why would they do anything else? This update will be like 9.1 in many ways. It is a feature upgrade. There was never any speculation about having to pay for 9.1, and it just wouldn't make sense to have people pay for 10.1 either.
Put yourself in apple's shoes: you're a hardware/software company that is facing off against a many large corporations, and you need to do more than just impress these corporations in order for them to support yourr platform. Right now, companies like adobe are rethinking if they want to continue developing for OS X, and you need to show them that OS X will be better than OS 9 could have ever been. So why, when you are trying to make users migrate to OS X would you put one more obstacle in their way? So you could slow down development even more? The quicker the transition to Puma is the quicker software corpartions can realize the strength of this new platform. Apple has nothing to gain from charging for this update except for a little bit of money, and they have plenty of that.