Lets break this reply into two sections... first addressing what seems like bizarre responses and second addressing what seems like legitimate questions.
Lets start...
Cat said:
What are you arguiing here? What is the risk? That developers will stop writing Mac apps and rely on windows virtualisation? I asked you to give a rationale for that, but I haven't seen one. Are you arguing that developers are intrinsically irrational and "pull apps for no reason"? Well, then this transition to Intel and BootCamp will have not noticeable effect as the devs seem not to be rational agents
I gave a rationale... a detailed one, for why they would do such a thing. You even responded to it.
Either you are attempting to inflame the situation by pretending not to see the rationale or you really just don't get it (for reasons that, frankly, don't concern me).
So Apple's marketshare increases, there are more (albeit part-time) mac users than ever. Apple's stock goes up 10%, people are stunned and amazed, the international press is gushing, Windows delays Vista to spring 2007 _and you think developers will abandond the Mac_ ... IMHO, non sequitur ...
They don't need to see it as abandoning the Mac as their software still runs on Macs.
And I've only discussed (even in the face of you attempting to broaden the subject) developers of both Mac and Windows versions of their own products.
That's where I don't follow you anymore. Apple has ~5% marketshare and all the companies developing software for the Mac are quite happy to do so
You weren't following me to begin with. And once again you are trying to lump
all mac software developers into this when I have not (which may be why you can follow the argument).
Exactly, since there is no native windows photoshop version for the Mac, people will rather use Rosetta than reboot to windows to use the native windows version ...
Was there a point to that?
I'm sure that a lot of people will stick with Photoshop for Mac (even in Rosetta). Adobe would only have to have enough people that would be willing to run Photoshop in Windows on a Mac to make up for profit losses of dropping the Mac version to make this move.
You are presuming that those people 1) will buy/already own Windows licences 2) will buy/already own Photoshop for Windows Adobe has stated, like Microsoft, that they will be supoprting OS X on intel, they will ship native versions, in fact, the next version is going to be native. they will tackle this like the OS 9 - OS X transition allowing for 18-24 months, i.e. a full release cycle.
I'm not presuming any of that.
Further, Adobe did a port of Photoshop 5 to Carbon in under two weeks back in 1998... yet Photoshop 6 (released after the release of Mac OS X) was Mac OS 8/9 only. And Photoshop was the last major Adobe application to be released by Adobe.
And as I said earlier, Microsoft has promised things for Mac OS X and not delivered. Promises by businesses are almost as reliable as promises by politicians.
You seem to forget that there is a Mac version already, the one running under Rosetta. If you have evidence that this is actually compeltely unusabel, please say so or post evidence.
Where did I show evidence that I forgot this... where does this even effect my argument.
In fact, back when Photoshop 4 came out... and not for SGI, they were saying
"will, we already have a version of Photoshop for SGI, why should we be worried if they skipped us for this release". By the time of the Photoshop 5.5 release, many SGI users had either Macs or PCs on the same desk as their beloved SGIs. Now, in many cases, those systems have replaced their SGIs.
That's why I gave several reasons, backed by facts and references to developer reactions, to support my views.
I can provide
facts and references to developer reactions to many things of this nature on many platforms... that all turned out very bad.
Apple is gambling... and I'm just making sure that everyone here knows the odds of success are not 100%.
Okay, enough of the bizarre parts... you actually did asks some real questions that deserved real answers (though it was hard to spot in the mix).
I guess they are profitable right now, otherwise they would have pulled out. Now, from this situation the only reason I can see for them to rationally consider abandoning the OS X platform, is if the actual number of OS X users and prospective buyers declines.
Lets do the math, shall we...
Of all (100%) Mac users of a product
x percent are needed to just pay for the development costs and the remaining
y percent (100%-
x=
y) makes up the above cost profit.
For companies that already have a Windows version of their product, it is assumed that the Windows version is already profitable.
So what would make such a company stop developing a Mac version of a product?
The answer: if that company was assured that at least
z percent of those Mac users would buy the Windows version to continue to use the product... where
z is greater than or equal to
y.
Lets try putting in numbers... lets say (for the sake of argument) that
x=
y=50%. And lets say that we are talking about Adobe and Photoshop (again, for the sake of argument).
If Adobe thinks that 50% or more of current Mac Photoshop users would be willing to continue to use Photoshop even if the only way to run it was in Windows on a Mac... that would be enough to kill the Mac version of Photoshop.
Cat... if you can't see that as a rationale for what I'm arguing, there is little that I can do to help you with that. The logic doesn't get much drier than that... and you really can't argue the math.
When people ask why I think this is a bad idea... it always comes down to the math.
________________________
fryke said:
Okay. Just noticed that this post is going to be a little off-topic. So here first my short answer. (You can skip the rest if you want.) -> RacerX: Talk of impending doom and it'll materialise if enough people believe in it and work on it hard enough. I'm against that. I don't want to be blind and deaf, but I guess we all *know* by now that there's a danger. But again: You don't eat the food as hot as it's being cooked. (Dunno if that proverb exists in English in some variant...) Apple was doomed back in the day because they didn't allow clones. Apple was doomed because they weren't Windows compatible. Then Apple was doomed because they DID allow clones. Then they were doomed because of Windows 95. And then because of other things. OS X wasn't working right, so Apple was definitely doomed. Now Apple is doomed because it _does_ allow Windows software to run at native speeds on Mac hardware. There's a pattern. Apple is *always* doomed and it *always* survives improved.
I have 2,451 posts in our forum here. I have 1,125 posts in
this forum. I have 709 posts in
this forum. And I have 277 posts in
this forum.
In over 4,500 posts in the last 5 years have I ever talked of Apple's
impending doom? Do
you (the one person who has most likely read all of my post in this forum) ever remember me talking of
impending doom?
So far I've pointed out that I think this is a big misstep on Apple's part and people have taken it upon themselves to argue with me against that. But I stated at the beginning that I hope that I'm wrong.
And while I know that my arguments are correct... the number of factors in play here are enough that I have yet to say that
this is the end of Apple or
this is the end of the Mac.
I've only said that if it turns out to be the turning point for our platform... I'll be saying
"I told you so".