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bbloke

Registered
Following on from Cheryl's mention of the Spanish Flu, you might be interested in this article in National Geographic:

In 2007, a study in the Journal of the American Medi[c]al Association analyzed health data from the U.S. census that experienced the 1918 pandemic, and charted the death rates of 43 U.S. cities. That same year, two studies published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences sought to understand how responses influenced the disease’s spread in different cities. By comparing fatality rates, timing, and public health interventions, they found death rates were around 50 percent lower in cities that implemented preventative measures early on, versus those that did so late or not at all. The most effective efforts had simultaneously closed schools, churches, and theaters, and banned public gatherings. This would allow time for vaccine development (though a flu vaccine was not used until the 1940s) and lessened the strain on health care systems.
The studies reached another important conclusion: That relaxing intervention measures too early could cause an otherwise stabilized city to relapse. St. Louis, for example, was so emboldened by its low death rate that the city lifted restrictions on public gatherings less than two months after the outbreak began. A rash of new cases soon followed. Of the cities that kept interventions in place, none experienced a second wave of high death rates.
 
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Cheryl

Rosie Moderator
Staff member
Mod
The government here has made rather a mess of things with complex (and inconsistent) rules, opening up, locking down again, and so on,
I think many governments were just like this. The US had inconsistent rules between states and within states. The former president didn't want to do anything because he would be blamed if it went bad, so he dumped the responsibility to the states - many of which didn't know what they were doing and didn't have the finances to get it right.

is also important that: the restrictions are strong enough, the rules are clear, and that the public follow them.
You got that right !
 

bbloke

Registered
Hmm. After questions about effectiveness of lockdowns, I've provided access to quite a lot of data over several posts about coronavirus infections and measures for control, as well as parallels with the Spanish Flu, another pandemic. There are quite clear scientific observations.

With no discussion of that data and now a tangential criticism of a governor who, after I checked, is a Democrat, I'm suspecting this is really about politics rather than the science of the pandemic... If so, well, I suspect we'll easily find Republicans behaving badly too:

According to the newspaper, Republican DeSantis influenced a state administration that “suppressed unfavorable facts, dispensed dangerous misinformation, dismissed public health professionals, and promoted the views of scientific dissenters” who supported the governor’s ambivalent approach to the disease.
The investigation found that the Florida department of health’s county-level spokespeople stopped issuing public statements about Covid-19 between September and the 3 November election.
As Florida’s case total approached 900,000 before the election, Dan Gelber, mayor of Miami Beach, said at a press event, while calling for a statewide mask mandate: “It’s become pretty clear that what Florida is doing right now isn’t working. It’s unmistakably clear that Florida’s approach to managing this pandemic is failing pretty horribly.”
Personally, when it comes to the coronavirus, I'm really not bothered about supporting particular politicians or political parties (whether in the UK or in the US). I'm much more interested in what the scientists and healthcare professionals are finding and advizing.
 

bbloke

Registered
I think many governments were just like this. The US had inconsistent rules between states and within states. The former president didn't want to do anything because he would be blamed if it went bad, so he dumped the responsibility to the states - many of which didn't know what they were doing and didn't have the finances to get it right.
I think the current UK government and the previous US administration have mostly been examples of how not to handle the pandemic! :eek:
 

Cheryl

Rosie Moderator
Staff member
Mod
As a NYS citizen I am shocked but not surprised by the articles about Governor Cuomo coverup controversy: Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s top aide admits administration ... is one of many things he under investigations!
Let the investigations finish before making any opinions. I question why suddenly these gals came into the spotlight and why people are making a big deal over 'he made me uncomfortable'. When a certain GOP admitted on hot mike, people shrugged their shoulders and said it was locker room talk.

Yes, I agree, much of this is politics gone a muck.
 

bbloke

Registered
@Satcomer You've also talked about areas using and not using masks, so I've had a look for information on this too. I'm trying hard to present you with helpful information from many angles, as you originally wanted to know more.


US study. Taken from: Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, March 12, 2021, Vol. 70, No. 10.
"A" (left) shows the results of states using masks in the US. "B" (right) shows results where states allowed the public to go to restaurants, etc. Deaths and cases decreased once masks were being used. Unsurprisingly, dining in restaurants (can't use a mask while eating and drinking, confined space and possible ventilation issues, etc.) was linked to an increase.

Mask_mandates.png



US study. A slide taken from a presentation by the University of Kansas (https://ipsr.ku.edu/covid19/images/Mask_Mandate_forJoCo.pdf), showing how deaths were increasing in counties that didn't require the use of masks (compared to a county that did require the use of masks) within the same state:
Mask_nomask_counties.png



International study. A survey (190+ countries) where mortality (per million) was looked at in relation to speed of mask usage, amongst other factors (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.22.20109231v5.full.pdf). Late usage or non-usage of masks shows a rather clear spike...
Masks_begin.png



UK data. Interestingly, the Office for National Statistics had a Figure showing deaths due to flu (influenza), pneumonia, and the coronavirus (COVID-19): https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...deathsoccurringbetween1januaryand31august2020. With the social distancing and mask usage, the number of cases of flu have plummeted. Unsurprisingly, the measures against COVID-19 limit the spread of other diseases too, so it shows they do work. Also, if anyone tries telling you COVID-19 is no worse than the flu, you can see they're simply on another planet (or don't want to see) and it's not worth wasting your breath!

ONS.png


Well, I hope that helps with some US-centric data too! ;)
 
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Cheryl

Rosie Moderator
Staff member
Mod
I visited the wayback machine to February, 2002. The topic of the day: weather.

What's the weather by you? Here we have some warm 65° F sun. But this being March, I know we will get slammed with winter like snow and wind.
While the robins are singing around here, it is way too early for garden work or planting.
 

Cheryl

Rosie Moderator
Staff member
Mod
On a different note, has anyone seen the Alstate commercial that uses a singing hood ornament? There is something creepy about that singing hood ornament.
Here's reference:
 

Satcomer

In Geostationary Orbit
Well weather has been psychotic these days (think of the old saying March in Lion out like a Lamb”) high in 70 f and 40 the next day! At least the snow has all melted! ;)
 

bbloke

Registered
We don't get all that much snow here so I love it when we do get it. If I had to live with it on a regular basis, I might change my mind... It always sad when the white powder turns to a grey or brown slush. :confused:
 

Satcomer

In Geostationary Orbit
We don't get all that much snow here so I love it when we do get it. If I had to live with it on a regular basis, I might change my mind... It always sad when the white powder turns to a grey or brown slush. :confused:
Stop gloating BBlooke about living in old warm South!
 

bbloke

Registered
Stop gloating BBlooke about living in old warm South!
:D *chuckle* Not gloating about anything, I promise.

Unless you're in Alaska, I think all of the US is south of the UK. :)

We get less of the exciting weather, but I suppose we sometimes get four seasons in one day!
 
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